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Market Swings: Tariffs, Tech, and Fed Outlook

Market Swings: Tariffs, Tech, and Fed Outlook

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 Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1300. Welcome to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the unpredictable currents of the stock market. I'm your host, Sparky SPYder, and it's 6 am on Saturday, July 12th, 2025, Pacific time. We've just wrapped up a pretty wild week in the markets, so let's dive right into what's been moving the needle.First up, a quick market recap. The US stock market had a volatile few days, with major indices pulling back by the end of the week after hitting record highs earlier. For the week ending July 11th, all major US stock indexes finished in the red. The S&P 500 fell 0.31%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.3% for the week, and the Nasdaq Composite lost a modest 0.08%. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was also down 0.9%. Now, early in the week, specifically on July 8th, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite actually reached alltime highs, partly driven by strong performance in chipmakers. But that momentum eased by Friday.Looking at sector performance, it was a mixed bag. For the week, Energy was the strongest performer, up 2.22%, closely followed by Utilities, up 0.67%. On the flip side, Consumer Defensive, down 1.75%, and Financial Services, down 1.71%, were the weakest sectors. Information Technology, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Communications Services continue to hold significant weight in the S&P 500, collectively accounting for over 66% of the index. In tech, we saw a jump in positive earnings guidance for the second quarter, but also the largest increase in negative guidance, showing some mixed signals there.A dominant theme impacting market sentiment was the ongoing talk around the Trump administration's tariff policies. New tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from over a dozen nations, including Japan, South Korea, and Canada, are set to take effect on August 1st. There were also hints of potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper. While these announcements initially caused some broad selloffs, the market's response to the latest news was somewhat muted, perhaps because investors are either hoping for a deescalation or have already factored in some of the impact.The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remained a key focus. The FOMC held interest rates steady at 4.25%4.5% in June and is widely expected to maintain this stance at its upcoming July 30th meeting. However, market participants and some analysts anticipate rate cuts later in 2025, potentially starting in September or October, with some forecasts suggesting multiple 25basispoint cuts by yearend. The Fed’s cautious approach is influenced by persistent inflation, partly due to tariff concerns, and the state of the labor market.Q2 2025 corporate earnings season is just around the corner, set to begin next week. Overall earnings growth for Q2 is expected to be less than 6% yearoveryear.On the companyspecific front, Amazon’s extended Prime Day ran from July 8th to July 11th, which could impact consumer spending data. U.S. Cellular shares rose after the Justice Department announced it would not block TMobile's proposed acquisition. In the tech sector, Corning’s shares soared after the company boosted its guidance due to strong demand for optical connectivity products in AI applications, and Super Micro Computer also saw a significant jump as AIrelated stocks gained. Conversely, airline stocks, including United and American, lost ground on Friday after an earlier rally spurred by encouraging quarterly results from Delta Air Lines.Now, for the big picture, macroeconomic conditions. The labor market continues to show resilience. The June 2025 jobs report indicated that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000, exceeding consensus estimates, and the unemployment rate remained low at 4.1%. Initial jobless claims also decreased. However, a gradual decline in yearoveryear average hourly earnings to 3.7% in June suggests a softening, which some see as a good sign for labor costs.Inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index for June, to be released next week, expected to show an uptick due to the impact of tariffs. In May, the annual inflation rate increased to 2.4%, and core inflation remained at 2.8%, still above the Fed's 2% target. Analysts anticipate June CPI to rise to 2.6% and core CPI to 2.9% yearoveryear.On the economic growth front, real GDP likely returned to growth in the second quarter after a mild contraction in Q1. However, this rebound was primarily attributed to a drop in imports rather than robust consumer or business demand. Consumer spending saw a broadbased decline in May. The overall economic outlook is marked by uncertainty, with the

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