Market Alert: Earnings, Tariffs & CPI

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Market Alert: Earnings, Tariffs & CPI

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Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1301. Hey there, traders, and welcome back to Spy Trader, your daily dive into the markets! I'm your host, Captain Candlestick, and it's 6 am on Sunday, July 13th, 2025, Pacific. We're gearing up for a potentially wild week ahead, packed with major market movers. The US stock market is poised for some volatility as we kick off the secondquarter earnings season, get hit with crucial inflation data, and continue to grapple with those persistent concerns over escalating trade tariffs. While the market has shown remarkable resilience, there's a slightly bearish to cautious sentiment out there right now, with several key catalysts that could really shake things up. We've seen the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh record intraday highs recently. But, don't get too comfortable, folks. There are some technical indicators, like the Relative Strength Index, showing negative divergences, hinting that the market's meltup mode might be losing a bit of steam. Some analysts are even calling for a 'Slightly Bearish' outlook, suggesting we could see selling pressure if economic data disappoints or if tariff talk gets even hotter. This upcoming week is absolutely loaded with significant economic data that will heavily influence market direction. We're talking about the big inflation numbers: the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index are both due out. These are super critical because the Federal Reserve has explicitly said that the potential inflationary impact of tariffs is a factor in their interest rate decisions. We'll also get a look at US consumer spending with the retail sales data, giving us insight into consumer health, which, as we know, is a key driver of economic growth. As for interest rates and the Fed, expectations for a July FOMC rate cut remain very low, practically zero. While many Fed officials see a path to lower rates eventually, the timing and extent are still being debated, especially with all the uncertainty from tariffs. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs is projecting lower 10year Treasury yields, which they believe could actually give the stock market a boost. On the employment front, recent jobless claims have dropped, though continuing claims did see a slight increase. June's payroll data surpassed expectations, indicating that we really need to see a more significant slowdown in job creation and wage growth for inflation to get closer to the Fed's 2% target. Trade tensions are still a dominant theme, folks. The Trump administration just announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and hinted at similar measures for the EU, on top of existing tariffs on Japan and South Korea. While markets have largely shrugged off previous tariff threats, their continued escalation does raise concerns about potential negative impacts on economic growth and inflation. Companies are reportedly planning to offset these tariff impacts through cost savings, supplier adjustments, and pricing, but the full effects might take some time to really show up. Looking at sector performance from the past week, it was a mixed bag. Energy stocks were strong, gaining nearly 3%, and the information technology sector, especially semiconductors, continued its outperformance, likely still fueled by that ongoing AI theme. Copper and silver also saw significant rallies after those tariff announcements. On the flip side, financials were down nearly 2% ahead of their earnings reports, while consumer staples like food stocks and communication services, particularly ad companies, also lagged. Now, for the main event: the secondquarter earnings season unofficially kicks off next week, with a barrage of S&P 500 companies set to report, starting with the major banks on Tuesday. Analysts are forecasting a slower earnings growth rate of 4.8% for S&P 500 companies in aggregate for Q2, down quite a bit from 13% in Q1 2025. In financials, big names like JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are on the docket. JPMorgan Chase, specifically, is expected to post strong Q2 earnings due to higher fee income, lower loanloss provisions, and robust equities trading. Other notable reports include Netflix, which is expected to exceed its Q2 guidance, and companies like 3M, Ally Financial, American Express, and many others. Given all these mixed signals and the potential for increased volatility, Captain Candlestick recommends a cautious and agile approach for the upcoming week. First off, prioritize risk management. Consider reviewing your portfolio allocations, setting clear stoploss orders, and maybe trimming positions in highly speculative assets, especially with that 'sell on the news' potential around earnings and the uncertainty of tariffs. Second, focus on quality and defensive sectors. Energy could continue to show resilience given its recent strong performance and potential tailwinds from inflationary pressures. Healthcare and utilities are often considered defensive and might ...