Audible会員プラン登録で、20万以上の対象タイトルが聴き放題。

プレビューの再生
  • How to Expect the Unexpected

  • The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To
  • 著者: Kit Yates
  • ナレーター: Kit Yates
  • 再生時間: 11 時間 42 分

聴き放題対象外タイトルです。Audible会員登録で、非会員価格の30%OFFで購入できます。

無料体験で、20万以上の対象作品が聴き放題に
アプリならオフライン再生可能
プロの声優や俳優の朗読も楽しめる
Audibleでしか聴けない本やポッドキャストも多数
無料体験終了後は月額¥1,500。いつでも退会できます。

How to Expect the Unexpected

著者: Kit Yates
ナレーター: Kit Yates
¥2,730で会員登録し購入

無料体験終了後は月額¥1,500。いつでも退会できます。

¥3,900 で購入

¥3,900 で購入

下4桁がのクレジットカードで支払う
ボタンを押すと、Audibleの利用規約およびAmazonのプライバシー規約同意したものとみなされます。支払方法および返品等についてはこちら

あらすじ・解説

A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right

How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage.

From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for listeners to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.

This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2023 Kit Yates (P)2023 Basic Books

批評家のレビュー

“In this smart study… The survey of the mind’s biases intrigues, and the author excels at demonstrating their real-world effects. … It’s a safe bet that readers will take to this.”—Publishers Weekly

“Yates’ tour of the predictions business covers much interesting ground, which he tills with an entertaining sense of humor.”—Kirkus

“Kit Yates presents math as it should be taught to everyone: accessible, fun, stimulating, and deeply relevant to our lives. Spend some time with this book and you're likely to make better judgements and decisions, to see through the charlatans and snake-oil salespeople—and perhaps even to fool yourself a little less.”—Philip Ball, author of the award-winning Critical Mass

How to Expect the Unexpectedに寄せられたリスナーの声

カスタマーレビュー:以下のタブを選択することで、他のサイトのレビューをご覧になれます。