Audible会員プラン登録で、20万以上の対象タイトルが聴き放題。

プレビューの再生
  • Superforecasting

  • The Art and Science of Prediction
  • 著者: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
  • ナレーター: Joel Richards
  • 再生時間: 9 時間 45 分
  • 4.5 out of 5 stars (2件のカスタマーレビュー)

聴き放題対象外タイトルです。Audible会員登録で、非会員価格の30%OFFで購入できます。

無料体験で、20万以上の対象作品が聴き放題に
アプリならオフライン再生可能
プロの声優や俳優の朗読も楽しめる
Audibleでしか聴けない本やポッドキャストも多数
無料体験終了後は月額¥1,500。いつでも退会できます。

Superforecasting

著者: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
ナレーター: Joel Richards
¥1,750で会員登録し購入

無料体験終了後は月額¥1,500。いつでも退会できます。

¥2,500 で購入

¥2,500 で購入

下4桁がのクレジットカードで支払う
ボタンを押すと、Audibleの利用規約およびAmazonのプライバシー規約同意したものとみなされます。支払方法および返品等についてはこちら

あらすじ・解説

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.

©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.

Superforecastingに寄せられたリスナーの声

総合評価
  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • 星5つ
    1
  • 星4つ
    1
  • 星3つ
    0
  • 星2つ
    0
  • 星1つ
    0
ナレーション
  • 5 out of 5 stars
  • 星5つ
    2
  • 星4つ
    0
  • 星3つ
    0
  • 星2つ
    0
  • 星1つ
    0
ストーリー
  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • 星5つ
    1
  • 星4つ
    1
  • 星3つ
    0
  • 星2つ
    0
  • 星1つ
    0

カスタマーレビュー:以下のタブを選択することで、他のサイトのレビューをご覧になれます。