110: Center for REALTOR® Development: 2025 National & Local Market Outlook with Dr. Jessica Lautz from NAR: Part 1

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110: Center for REALTOR® Development: 2025 National & Local Market Outlook with Dr. Jessica Lautz from NAR: Part 1

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Welcome, friends to the Center for REALTOR® Development podcast from the National Association of REALTORS®. I am so glad you are joining me and today’s guest, Dr. Jessica Lautz from NAR. Dr. Lautz is the Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at the National Association of REALTORS®. I love, love, love my data friends and I always learn things to help me and my clients. These trends are so huge when talking with our clients and preparing ourselves, as well as just getting in the nitty gritty because our clients are looking at that national market but we’re also in the local market. I’m so excited to talk today about how we put those two things together. We are releasing this interview in two episodes. This is Part 1. [1:16] Welcome, Jessica! What are the hot topics you are seeing that are important and different? Let’s give our listeners a preview of what we’re going to discuss in these two episodes, 110 and 111. [1:36] Jessica says the real estate market is divided into two markets. We have an all-time high of all cash home buyers with cash from housing equity. At the same time, we have an all-time low of first-time home buyers. [1:58] Everybody’s demographics are changing and buyers are adapting to the real estate market at hand. We’re going to go over fundamentals and dig into some demographics, too. [2:18] Did anybody expect these demographic changes? Some unexpected things are going on in the world. [2:27] When we look at the real estate market, we know it is a tough market. Inventory is still extremely limited, even though it’s jumping and we’re seeing rises in housing inventory. We’re still under February of 2020 when the housing market went bananas! We know that it’s a difficult market to get into. [2:55] Home sales in 2023, 2024, and the first quarter of 2025 have been the lowest since 1995. This is striking because we have 75 million more people in this country than we did in 1995. Home sales volume being at the same level as in 1995 doesn’t make a lot of sense. [4:06] We have more family units that tend to be smaller. We need more homes. We have seen young adults doubling up with parents and older relatives doubling up with their adult children. We know we have a lot of pent-up demand in the housing market from those young adults trying to leave the nest. [4:39] We’re going to talk a lot more about them and the first-time home buyer option in our second episode, look at the demographics, and some possible solutions for young adult home buyers. [4:50] With the low number of transactions, we don’t see the number of real estate agents shrinking. That’s unexpected. It’s an incredibly competitive and dynamic industry. You have to show your value, and what you can do for a client seller, or buyer. It’s very difficult and it’s growing. [5:30] Dr. Lautz was in three cities last week, talking to REALTORS® in Lansing, MI, Nashville, TN, and Orlando, FL, three very different real estate markets. In each hotel, the person at the desk or a person in line told her they wanted to study for their real estate license. It’s an attractive career path. [6:14] Monica told someone that the number of actual sales is down, but it is the kind of market where anybody willing to be creative and hustle can still get in. Dr. Lautz agrees. Everyone has a different business model Everybody has the niche market they develop over time. [6:46] Monica was an agent in 2008. There were a lot of foreclosures, so foreclosure agents were getting a disproportionate amount of business. Monica took on some side work to stay in the business. The whole country was economically challenged. It felt so different to Monica than right now. [7:22] Jobs are at a good level. Unemployment is at reasonable levels. Dr. Lautz says jobs are important for home sale activity. Interest rates have been stable recently in the mid-6% range. Mortgage delinquencies are low because people need to have good finances to get a mortgage loan. [9:17] Even someone in an unfortunate situation where they are forced to sell will probably get some cash out of their house. [9:40] Dr. Lautz says that in more than four-fifths of the markets, home prices keep going up. They are going up by double digits in some markets. It’s a result of the lack of available inventory. Nationwide existing home sale prices are higher for each month than the NAR has ever seen in previous years. [10:20] Prices differ in markets around the country. In some markets, people bid up home prices during the pandemic and there has been an easing of prices in some of those areas. In Austin, home prices went up 45% year-over-year. There has been an easing there. Homeowners are in a winning situation. [11:13] In the pandemic, we borrowed buyers from the future. During the pandemic, people suddenly and unexpectedly decided to move while ...