• 606. How to Predict the Presidency

  • 2024/10/11
  • 再生時間： 56 分
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606. How to Predict the Presidency

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  • サマリー

  • Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two of a two-part series.)

    • SOURCES:
      • Eric Posner, professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School.
      • Koleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University.

    • RESOURCES:
      • "A Trump Dictatorship Won’t Happen," by Eric Posner (Project Syndicate, 2023).
      • The Demagogue's Playbook: The Battle for American Democracy from the Founders to Trump, by Eric Posner (2020).
      • "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf (The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling, 2013).
      • "Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Working Paper, 2007).
      • "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004).

    • EXTRAS:
      • "Has the U.S. Presidency Become a Dictatorship? (Update)," by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
      • “Does the President Matter as Much as You Think?” by Freakonomics Radio (2020).
      • "How Much Does the President Really Matter?" by Freakonomics Radio (2010).
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あらすじ・解説

Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two of a two-part series.)

  • SOURCES:
    • Eric Posner, professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School.
    • Koleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University.

  • RESOURCES:
    • "A Trump Dictatorship Won’t Happen," by Eric Posner (Project Syndicate, 2023).
    • The Demagogue's Playbook: The Battle for American Democracy from the Founders to Trump, by Eric Posner (2020).
    • "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf (The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling, 2013).
    • "Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Working Paper, 2007).
    • "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004).

  • EXTRAS:
    • "Has the U.S. Presidency Become a Dictatorship? (Update)," by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
    • “Does the President Matter as Much as You Think?” by Freakonomics Radio (2020).
    • "How Much Does the President Really Matter?" by Freakonomics Radio (2010).
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