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In this episode, I sat down with John Rapley, who co-wrote “Why Empires Fall.” The conversation kicks off with a bit about how John and his co-author, Peter Heather, came up with the idea for the book. They realized that even though they came from different academic backgrounds, they had similar ideas about how empires rise and collapse—whether we’re talking about ancient Rome or today’s Western world led by the US.
John explains that empires get rich and powerful by exploiting their “peripheries” (i.e., colonies or less developed countries). But over time, those peripheries grow stronger and can eventually challenge the empire’s dominance. In Rome’s day, this happened with actual invasions, but now it’s more about economic competition and shifting global power.
They talk about how the Western world isn’t necessarily doomed to collapse like Rome did, mainly because of technology and ongoing economic growth. However, if Western countries make poor policy choices—like trying to recreate past “greatness” without adapting to new realities—they could end up in serious decline, both relative to other countries and in real terms.
https://x.com/jarapley
00:00 Periphery's Rise, Empire's Decline
06:54 Managing US Global Strategy Shift
12:07 "Fragmenting Western Empire Dynamics"
16:21 Post-Brexit Soft Power Decline
25:22 "Bretton Woods: Catalyst of Collapse?"
28:48 Global Trade: Shifting Power Dynamics
33:34 Global Trade Dynamics Disrupted
41:02 Rethinking Trade and Manufacturing Strategy
44:57 Brexit and Europe's Brain Drain
52:16 Currency Debasement and Worker Taxation
54:29 Bitcoin Million Possibility: Economic Implications
01:00:04 Debating Western Decline Analogies
01:05:23 Western Decline and Global Power Shift
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