The dollar has continued to lose ground against most major and emerging market currencies in the past few weeks. A US court ruling that deemed White House tariffs to be illegal has been delayed pending an appeal. Trade negotiations are ongoing, although these have failed to yield much progress thus far. Investors are also fearful that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax bill could lead to a sharp increase in US debt in the next few years.

Thus far, however, the world’s largest economy is holding up remarkably well. Will a US recession be avoided in 2025? And what do the latest UK data surprises mean for the Bank of England and the pound?

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US tariff headlines continue to dominate the narrative in financial markets. Fears over a US recession triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities, Treasuries and the dollar last month. Yet, signs of progress in trade negotiations, particularly following the news of a US-China trade deal, have lifted optimism, and raised hopes that the economic impact of the tariffs will be less significant than initially anticipated.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by another 25 basis points last week. MPC members appear perhaps as divided as ever over the path ahead for UK rates. The bank’s communications were hawkish, however, suggesting that a “gradual” pace of cuts lies ahead. But, what does this mean for sterling?

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The US dollar collapsed to its lowest level in three years this week, with investors still reeling from the unveiling of (and subsequent delay to) President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Yet, with Trump and his top team softening their stance towards China, and the President backtracking on his calls to remove Jerome Powell from his position as chair of the FOMC, has the tide turned for the US currency?

We also look ahead to the release of next week’s highly important US GDP report. Is the world’s largest economy on course to post a shock contraction in the first quarter? And is a US recession inevitable in 2025?

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