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What was the first election ever accurately predicted by a poll? And how far off the mark was that poll? Also, which elections had the highest and lowest turnout t…

First and foremost, I want to say I’m thinking of everyone affected by the flash flooding in Texas. The details are heart wrenching and here’s to hoping that everyone stays safe as more flooding appears to be on its way.

We start off today’s episode taking a look back at how Republicans managed to pass a tax and spending bill that so many of the party’s own caucus seemed to take issue with. We also look ahead to the kinds of political fights we expect to emerge over the legislation.

Plus, Elon Musk says it’s official that he’s starting an America Party. We all know the structural challenges that lie ahead if he actually does it, but what’s the most optimistic case for America (the party, not the country) and the most pessimistic? Also, the pause on President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs expires on Wednesday. The betting markets are wagering that it’s going to be another case of TACO.

We didn’t have time to get to it in this episode, but we also played a game of historical election data trivia to mark the beginning of America’s semiquincentennial year. That will be in the feed for paid subscribers later this week.

Joining me is Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, and Leah Askarinam, reporter at the Associated Press.

I’ve been doing the podcast rounds this week, chatting with the folks at The Bulwark and Raging Moderates. If you heard me there and are new to this podcast, I want to say a big welcome! I’m glad you’re here! For regular listeners who want to hear me spout off, you can find some of that spouting in those feeds.

I also talked to Gabe Fleisher of Waking Up To Politics in a live Substack chat on Wednesday and you’re gonna hear part of that conversation in this episode. For context, Gabe is 23 and has been writing a political newsletter since he was nine years old. So, although I’m a decade older than him, we’ve been at this about the same amount of time.

We began by talking about the piece I wrote in the Times last week. I won’t make you re-listen to all of that. I also had a conversation with Nathaniel Rakich about the piece, which is further down in this feed, titled “Why Democrats Need Their Own Trump.”

Gabe and I chatted while the House was considering the bill formerly known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The conversation begins with a good question that Gabe asked me: Trump campaigned as a populist but hasn’t necessarily governed that way, promoting policies like OBBBA that are more standard Republican fare. So, is he going to be able to actually transform the Republican Party longterm into a more populist party? Take a listen!