Petrochemical markets are likely to remain depressed while China and other countries continue to add significant capacity, unless big wave of closures and demand improvement help to achieve balance.

- Global capacity additions far outstrip demand growth

- China, Middle East, US likely to continue expansions

- China drove the petrochemical supercycle, but no longer

- China chemicals demand growth likely only 2-4%/year

- Prospect of global deflation

- Europe can focus on specialty chemicals, other niches

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--ICIS has revised down its forecast for China’s combined imports of propane and butane for 2024 because of weaker-than-expected demand in fuel applications.

• Full-year LPG imports projected at 36.7 million tonnes
• Fuel LPG demand falls on increased natural gas usage amid weak economy
• Strong feedstock LPG demand partly offset decline in fuel consumption

Europe’s beleaguered petrochemical industry could see its fortunes improve dramatically if Mario Draghi’s new industrial policy proposals are adopted, along with a fair regulatory framework.

- New industrial strategy can rescue region from structurally higher costs, low levels of investment

- Historic moment with momentum building for new approach to Europe industry transformation

- Green Deal objectives need to work alongside measures to improve competitiveness

- New requirements for Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) reporting and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) will have big impact on chemicals

- Compliance teams face a “nasty cocktail” because of lack of regulatory clarity

- Shift from risk to hazard-based approach

- Regulations create opportunities for innovative chemical companies

In this podcast, Senior Editor Emily Friedman, and Analyst, Josh Dill, dive deeper into the challenges US chemical recyclers face.

New analysis suggests the chemical industry may face a more rapidly aging and shrinking population in key markets such as China, while the subsequent drag on demand means new business models will be required.

- China-driven petrochemicals Supercycle is over

- China’s population may be aging and shrinking more quickly than previously thought

- China may switch to become net exporter of many synthetic resins

- Demographic shifts will shrink demand for chemicals throughout developed world

- Developing world faces challenges which may slow growth

- New business models will be required to create opportunities from these trends

The Europe oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets have faced a sluggish summer despite ongoing supply challenges. Editors Mathew Jolin-Beech, Nicole Simpson, Cameron Birch and Marion Boakye discuss how August has been for the oxo alcohol, acrylate ester, butac and glycol ether markets.

Senior editors Vicky Ellis, Ben Lake and Samantha Wright look at what else made August unusual, and look ahead to September in this latest podcast on Europe, Africa and Turkey markets.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, which shows the latest outlook for increased corn and soybean production with corn being calculated at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million bushels from the July report, while soybeans are projected to be 4.6 billion bushels, up 154 million bushels.

Senior Editor Mark Milam talks to Sylvia Traganida about the report and the current trends in the US market.