China's oxo-alcohols market will see supply glut recently in the face of intensive new plant start-ups, but tepid downstream demand.

Net import volumes may plunge in the short term because of overseas plant turnrounds and rising domestic supply, but whether this could sustain still depends on overseas plant operations and import arbitrage opportunities.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Several ICIS market experts share insightful facts related to their respective plastics markets, amid conversations with industry professionals at PackExpo '24. Though each market comes with a host of uncertainties, the broader US plastic packaging industry continues to navigate mixed demand and various supply challenges in 2024 and beyond.

• Bottled beverage sector made up 15% of all US packaging revenue in 2023.
• US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production to remain 3 billion lbs short of domestic demand in 2025.
• US polystyrene (PS) production has been impacted by outages since July 2024.
• US polypropylene (PP) prices have been volatile, with price movements 11 out of the last 12 months.
• US polyethylene (PE) inventories are the highest they have been since May 2023.
• US recycled PET (R-PET) market facing onslaught of imports. 2Q2024 PET scrap import volumes were above 125 million lbs.

LONDON (ICIS)---Relatively flat demand trends and evolving global supply dynamics evident in H2 2024 are expected to largely persist within the European acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and acrylonitrile (ACN) markets in Q1 2025.

In this latest podcast, Europe ABS report editor Stephanie Wix and her counterpart on the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead.

• Macroeconomic challenges expected to continue limiting ABS and ACN demand through Q4 into Q1 2025
• ABS and ACN availability likely to remain lengthy
• Import-led ABS competition could increase in Q1 2025

ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products.

ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibres for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.

Market forces and long-term trends such as global overcapacity and sustainability will have more impact on chemical companies than who wins the US presidential election.

- Chemical companies driven more by long-term trends than government policy

- Consumer demand for more sustainable products will drive chemical markets

- US relies heavily on exports for its low-cost polymers

- Donald Trump promises to hike tariffs by 10-20% on all imports, 60% on Chinese imports

- Trump may ease US chemicals regulation, Kamala Harris may tighten

- Questions over investments in the green transition

More chemical industry leaders are making bold strategic decisions to combat a multi-year downturn, driving their companies to focus on areas where they can seize a competitive advantage.

- China-driven overcapacity could imbalance global supply/demand until 2030

- Need for large-scale capacity closures to balance market

- Companies can choose to focus on commodities or become specialty/low carbon players

- CEOs waking up to the need for a radical examination of their assets and strategies

- A trickle of announcements about closures and restructurings turning into a flood

- Leaders such as BASF, Dow, LyondellBasell, Versalis take bold steps to reduce their commodity footprint in Europe

This is the audio podcast version of a special ICIS Think Tank Live webinar recorded on 30 October.

LONDON (ICIS)--Throughout October, demand in the European oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets has been slow-paced and below initial expectations.

Sluggishness is expected to persist throughout the remainder of Q4, influenced by various factors including wider economic weakness, geopolitical tensions, and end-of-year destocking.

Butyl acetate reporter Marion Boakye speaks to oxo-alcohols reporter Nicole Simpson, glycol ethers reporter Cameron Birch and acrylate esters reporter Mathew Jolin-Beech about market dynamics down the oxo-alcohols value chain.

LONDON (ICIS)--Demand in EU and US epoxy markets remains sluggish, in a still difficult climate, but players are eagerly awaiting anti-dumping duty (ADD) decisions which could provide some domestic demand support into 2025.

Senior editor Heidi Finch, who covers the Europe epoxy market, and fellow senior editor Tarun Raizada, who covers the US epoxy market, share insights on key topics discussed at a recent industry event, current market sentiment and near-term expectations.

• Markets muted in Q4 so far, still fragile climate
• US market subdued ahead of November duty announcements
• US players in wait-and-watch mode, no major supply/demand forecasting taking place
• Slight degree of optimism in US epoxy for 2025, but year-over-year growth expectations tempered
• EU likely to gain share into 2025, due to the ADD case
• EU macroeconomics improving slowly, but fundamental recovery likely to take longer, geopolitics major risk

Podcast editing by Will Beacham

Weak demand continues to be a concern in the European acetone and phenol chain and in the wider chemicals industry and Q4 will remain tough, in view of year-end considerations, but when will demand turn a corner?

Europe ICIS editors Jane Gibson (acetone and phenol), Heidi Finch (bisphenol A and epoxy resins), Meeta Ramnani (polycarbonate), Mathew Jolin-Beech (methyl methacrylate) and ICIS senior analyst Michele Bossi (aromatics and derivatives) discuss current market conditions, in view of residual macro and geopolitical headwinds, although easing interest rates and the trade defence investigation for epoxy brings some hopes and opportunities in Europe.