US Treasury markets are suggestive of a cooling economy. Investors expect many rate cuts, as yields on bonds have refused to rise. Lower yields on long-term Treasuries, suggest that there is still a scramble to buy safe assets as volatility in riskier asset classes, specifically shares, will continue with further bouts of pounding.

Gold is in high demand – a situation that normally presents itself when other assets face trouble. It would be reasonable to assume that investors are no longer exuberant about market conditions, a phase usually associated as a forerunner to a correction. This podcast provides a perspective on commodities, markets and interest rates.

Recently, the government passed the Digital Personal Data Protection Act (DPDP). Its primary purpose is to regulate the collection and processing of digital personal data and respect individuals' rights.

The way the system will work is that the government will create a Data Protection Board, as the supervising agency to monitor, enforce rules and impose penalties when appropriate. The board would adjudicate a dispute between those whose personal data has been given to a platform and the platform which has in turn breached the obligations under the Act. Companies are understandably concerned that even unintended slips can lead to serious charges of violation. This opens up a completely new industry that promises auditing of an organisation’s processes to ensure compliance. The cost of doing business will consequently jump.
This podcast explains.

IMA recently published its ‘Vision 2030: India’s Growth Frontiers’ report, which offers a comprehensive analysis of the factors driving the country’s economic transformation. This report aims to provide strategic insights and recommendations to navigate what is undoubtedly an exciting and dynamic environment, while decoding the nuances of India's economic journey in the years ahead. Given the sheer length of the report, we will be sharing bite-sized extracts from the study over the next few weeks.

The first episode of this series looks at the both the drivers and the challenges that will shape the India of 2030, including:

• Economic Growth: India’s GDP could reach between USD 5.2 trillion and USD 7.8 trillion by 2030, greatly boosting per capita income and consumption.
• Consumption-Led Expansion: By 2030, India will be one of the world’s main growth drivers, with private consumption exceeding 60% of GDP, supported by a young population and rising incomes.
• Sectoral Shifts: Agriculture's share will decline, while services, manufacturing and infrastructure will dominate the economy.
• Capital Inflows: Strong FDI, particularly in services and IT, coupled with evolving financial markets, will open new opportunities for growth.
• Challenges: Key risks include low investment rates, fiscal pressures, declining savings, skill gaps and inadequate social security. These must be addressed to sustain growth.

During a briefing at IMA’s CEO Forum, Jonty Rhodes, a prominent cricketer, explained that as a member of the South African squad, he observed his captain Hansie Cronjeplay decisively to each member’s strength. Everybody could simply not be exceptional at everything and as long as each team member did his job, success was near assured. Unlike Jonty, most motivation speakers tell stories on attributes of personal achievement, which include routine, discipline and an unrelenting yearn to succeed. Inspiring as these anecdotes are, the underlying messages on leadership and management is usually muted, in what they offer as take-aways for business managers to apply in the work place. Human Resource Managers who are frequently responsible for putting together the company offsite, or leadership development programmes, must remember this distinction as this podcast explains.

Sheikh Hasina's sudden downfall has upended Bangladesh’s politics. It may also disrupt a strong India-Bangladesh relationship that helped stabilised the Eastern border for 15 years. While shared interests and careful diplomacy may preserve ties, the potential commercial and geopolitical fallout could be significant.
At a recent all-India, cross-Forum session, Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, South Asia Practice Head, Eurasia Group, Fellow at the Ananta Aspen Centre and Editor of the Quad+ Journal, discussed how the situation in Bangladesh might evolve and the implications for India, both geopolitically and for businesses operating in the region. This podcast summarises these discussions.

The failure of private investment to perk up, has been a source of worry. Private investment scores have essentially declined since 2012. Despite the government’s cajoling, through PLI based incentives, and the slashing of corporation tax, inhibitions remain amongst a sceptical business constituency to take the punt and expand capacity.

One reason for the blame is possibly low household consumption, a trend that has now lasted for nearly a decade, particularly after the Covid 19 pandemic. Another reason, as some economists have argued, are structural problems that endure in areas such as labour reforms. This podcast explains.

This year, dozens of major countries will hold (or already have held) elections. There are also important developments underway in the economic realm, both globally and in India. At a recent joint session of the India CEO and CFO Forums in Pune with Rajat Sethi, IMA’s Chief Policy Analyst and one of India’s leading political commentators and public intellectuals, we explored the impact of India’s recent election results, including on the new government’s likely policy priorities. This podcast summarises these discussions

Markets across the world came under a bout of bear hammering on the 5th August. US unemployment which had fallen to a new set of lows, began edging up again and inflation pressures eased. All of this contributed to the sell off, but the key reason was the unwinding of the yen carry trade - which involves borrowing in yen at minimal cost and investing in higher yield assets overseas.

This strategy adopted by punters worked very effectively over the course of the last decade, as the yen continued to weaken. But now, as the attached paper explains, the situation has turned upon its head. The Bank of Japan has started to increase interest rates and over the coming two or three years the yen is likely to strengthen. The carry trade has begun to reverse. Going forward, this will create market volatility across the world, as well as a correction in asset prices. Liquidity is bound to be affected.