President Trump has announced an enormous increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. But is this a negotiating tactic that will see tariffs fall over time, or a permanent feature of the new global trading system? And given that most investors’ worst case tariff scenario has transpired, what other major shocks could these moves catalyse? Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the design of the reciprocal tariff regime, the possible economic impact on the US, and how things might get better – or worse.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced spending cuts to restore headroom against the government’s fiscal rules. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the welfare cuts the government has announced, how vulnerable the UK fiscal position is to tariffs and other shocks, and the possibility of future tax increases.

US consumer and business sentiment has fallen significantly recently in response to extremely elevated policy uncertainty with some indicators pointing to elevated recession risks. Luke Bartholomew speaks to James McCann about the sudden deterioration in economic sentiment and how reliable this is as guide to future growth, the current state of play on tariff policy, the impact of DOGE on the job market, and how interest rates might revolve in response to the various shocks hitting the economy.