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Navigating the Gartner Hype Cycle: Unlocking the Secrets of Emerging Tech Adoption
- 2024/11/11
- 再生時間： 4 分
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あらすじ・解説
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a seminal concept that helps us understand the lifecycle of new technologies and trends, from their inception to mainstream adoption. This cycle, first introduced by Gartner in 1995, is divided into five distinct phases that illustrate the typical journey of an emerging technology.
### Innovation Trigger
The cycle begins with the "Innovation Trigger," where a new technology or trend is introduced, generating significant buzz and excitement. This phase is marked by early proof-of-concept stories and media interest, even though the technology may not yet be commercially viable. For instance, the emergence of generative AI in recent years sparked widespread interest and speculation about its potential[4].
### Peak of Inflated Expectations
As the technology gains more attention, it reaches the "Peak of Inflated Expectations." Here, the media and public enthusiasm reach a fever pitch, with many predicting revolutionary changes. This phase is characterized by numerous success stories, but also a high rate of failures. The Metaverse and AI are recent examples that have gone through this phase, with headlines proclaiming them as the future of various industries[1][4].
### Trough of Disillusionment
The hype eventually subsides, and the technology enters the "Trough of Disillusionment." During this phase, interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver on the initial promises. Many producers of the technology may fail or significantly scale back their efforts. However, some survivors continue to improve their products, setting the stage for the next phase. Generative AI, for example, is currently navigating this phase as the initial excitement gives way to a more realistic assessment of its capabilities[4][5].
### Slope of Enlightenment
As the technology matures, it enters the "Slope of Enlightenment." Here, more instances of the technology's benefits become apparent, and second- and third-generation products emerge. Enterprises begin to fund pilots, and while conservative companies remain cautious, the technology starts to find its footing. This phase is crucial as it marks the beginning of the technology's practical application and the realization of its true value[2][3].
### Plateau of Productivity
Finally, the technology reaches the "Plateau of Productivity," where it becomes fully integrated into society and is no longer the hot topic it once was. Mainstream adoption takes off, and the criteria for assessing provider viability are clearly defined. At this stage, the technology's broad market applicability and relevance are evident, and it continues to grow if it has more than a niche market[2][3].
Understanding the Gartner Hype Cycle is essential for businesses and innovators to navigate the ever-changing landscape of emerging technologies. It helps in separating hype from actual commercial promise, reducing risk in strategic decisions, and identifying the most promising innovations for investment. By recognizing where a technology stands in the cycle, decision-makers can make informed choices about when to invest, how to allocate resources, and how to manage expectations[2][4].
In summary, the Gartner Hype Cycle is a valuable tool for tracking the evolution of new technologies and trends, from the initial excitement to mainstream adoption. It provides a framework for understanding the highs and lows of technological innovation, helping businesses and innovators make smarter, more informed decisions.
### Innovation Trigger
The cycle begins with the "Innovation Trigger," where a new technology or trend is introduced, generating significant buzz and excitement. This phase is marked by early proof-of-concept stories and media interest, even though the technology may not yet be commercially viable. For instance, the emergence of generative AI in recent years sparked widespread interest and speculation about its potential[4].
### Peak of Inflated Expectations
As the technology gains more attention, it reaches the "Peak of Inflated Expectations." Here, the media and public enthusiasm reach a fever pitch, with many predicting revolutionary changes. This phase is characterized by numerous success stories, but also a high rate of failures. The Metaverse and AI are recent examples that have gone through this phase, with headlines proclaiming them as the future of various industries[1][4].
### Trough of Disillusionment
The hype eventually subsides, and the technology enters the "Trough of Disillusionment." During this phase, interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver on the initial promises. Many producers of the technology may fail or significantly scale back their efforts. However, some survivors continue to improve their products, setting the stage for the next phase. Generative AI, for example, is currently navigating this phase as the initial excitement gives way to a more realistic assessment of its capabilities[4][5].
### Slope of Enlightenment
As the technology matures, it enters the "Slope of Enlightenment." Here, more instances of the technology's benefits become apparent, and second- and third-generation products emerge. Enterprises begin to fund pilots, and while conservative companies remain cautious, the technology starts to find its footing. This phase is crucial as it marks the beginning of the technology's practical application and the realization of its true value[2][3].
### Plateau of Productivity
Finally, the technology reaches the "Plateau of Productivity," where it becomes fully integrated into society and is no longer the hot topic it once was. Mainstream adoption takes off, and the criteria for assessing provider viability are clearly defined. At this stage, the technology's broad market applicability and relevance are evident, and it continues to grow if it has more than a niche market[2][3].
Understanding the Gartner Hype Cycle is essential for businesses and innovators to navigate the ever-changing landscape of emerging technologies. It helps in separating hype from actual commercial promise, reducing risk in strategic decisions, and identifying the most promising innovations for investment. By recognizing where a technology stands in the cycle, decision-makers can make informed choices about when to invest, how to allocate resources, and how to manage expectations[2][4].
In summary, the Gartner Hype Cycle is a valuable tool for tracking the evolution of new technologies and trends, from the initial excitement to mainstream adoption. It provides a framework for understanding the highs and lows of technological innovation, helping businesses and innovators make smarter, more informed decisions.