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あらすじ・解説
Political polls are in our faces these days whether we want them or not -- especially if you're in the US during election season. We talk with polling expert and database journalist Dhrumil Mehta of Columbia University (formerly Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight) about how to think about polls. Are they all just noise? Do they tell the future? Something in the middle? Join us to explore where political polls come from, how to evaluate them, and how to make the most of the information they offer.
Materials referenced in the show:
- Example polling tracker from Nate Silver (Dhrumil and Andrea did not work on this version directly, but it is a "descendant" of a model they did work on.)
- Nate Silver article, "The Media Has a Probability Problem", FiveThirtyEight
- Harry Enten article, "Fake Polls are a Real Problem", FiveThirtyEight
- Harry Enten article, "Trump is Just a Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton", FiveThirtyEight
- Dhrumil's polls LLM: http://pollfinder.ai
More about Andrea here and on Instagram. More about Dhrumil here and on X.
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