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Politics Politics Politics

Politics Politics Politics

著者： Justin Robert Young
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 Unbiased political analysis the way you wish still existed. Justin Robert Young isn't here to tell you what to think, he's here to tell you who is going to win and why.

www.politicspoliticspolitics.comJustin Robert Young 世界 政治・政府
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  • MAGA Freezes Out Elon! The Ins and Outs of Conservative Media (with Kevin Ryan)

    MAGA Freezes Out Elon! The Ins and Outs of Conservative Media (with Kevin Ryan)
    2025/06/05
    The Big Beautiful Bill looked like it was gliding along. Sure, there were hiccups — Rand Paul grumbled about the debt ceiling, some MAGA accounts didn’t fully endorse it — but even then, it felt like controlled turbulence. Paul was performing his role as the token dissenter, the libertarian who always squawks about spending but eventually votes yes with a few tweaks. And he was already telegraphing his price: drop the debt ceiling hike and he’s in. Meanwhile, the House side wasn’t exactly throwing punches. Everyone was eyeing the Senate. If anything, it seemed like things were lining up for a classic late-June deal — messy but inevitable.Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman, who’s as wired in as it gets, detailed the emerging gap between the House and Senate versions of the bill. The Senate Finance Committee wants permanent tax breaks that sunset in the House version. They’re also pushing to modify or eliminate key Trump-era items — like the no-tax-on-overtime policy and new savings accounts for kids. There’s still no consensus on SALT either. Senate Republicans want to water down the $40,000 deduction cap that Trump himself agreed to. That would make some moderate House Republicans happy, but it could risk blowing up the agreement altogether. This is the stuff that actually matters — the policy guts that will be run past the parliamentarian and hashed out in closed-door meetings. But then, out of nowhere… Elon.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.MAGA Has a Specific TypeTwo days ago, Elon Musk posted that the big beautiful bill was a “disgusting abomination.” Then he followed it up by retweeting Rand Paul with the words “KILL the BILLL.” That’s not a passing criticism. That’s scorched-earth stuff. And when it comes from a guy like Elon — who has positioned himself as a billionaire warrior for the MAGA cause — it’s a challenge. So I did what I always do. I doomscrolled. Not for fun, but for you. To see who flinches. And here’s what I found: almost nobody followed his lead.Charlie Kirk, who had been fairly quiet on the bill, suddenly dropped a thread outlining “50 wins” from it — MAGA-branded talking points that sounded like they came from Speaker Johnson’s office. He didn’t mention Elon. He didn’t need to. The timing was the tell. He was staking a claim: this bill is ours. It’s Trump’s. And we’re backing it. Then came Catturd. If you don’t know about @Catturd2, well, that’s why you listen to this show. The dude’s a Twitter account run by a Florida musician, but in the MAGA ecosystem, his voice carries weight. When he turns, people follow. And he wasn’t with Elon either.Mike Cernovich — someone who’s ridden hard for Elon, slammed his enemies, carried water for his beefs — also pivoted. He made it clear that Trump’s agenda is what gets MAGA fired up, not fiscal purity. His message was simple: you might like Elon, but Trump’s the main character here. And look, none of these guys are policy wonks. But they are barometers. They’re not jumping to Elon’s defense. They’re lining up behind the machine.Last One In, First One OutElon is learning in real time what it means to be new money in a political world that runs on tenure and loyalty. MAGA isn’t a traditional political coalition. It’s more like a federation of tribes — influencers, donors, operators — loosely tied together by a shared orbit around Trump. And in that world, being flashy doesn’t count for much if you weren’t in the trenches in 2016 or 2020. Elon came on board when it was already a moving train. Buying Twitter, firing woke staff, bringing Trump back to the platform — all of that scored him points. But that’s not the same as being family.That’s why I keep coming back to the same thought: last one in, first one out. Musk might be the richest guy in the world. He might own the place where MAGA influencers gather. But the moment he stepped out of line, they let him drift. Not a coordinated takedown. Just silence. And silence is brutal. He’s not getting clowned like Bannon did when he got iced out. He’s just floating — a slow, silent uncoupling from the people who used to cheer his every post.Now, Mike Johnson is supposed to speak to Elon about the bill today. Maybe that call smooths things over. Maybe Russ Vought or Stephen Miller reels him back in. Maybe he gets a seat at the table, tweaks the AI language, and declares victory. But right now, he’s yelling about the CBO’s deficit projections and getting politely ignored. And the MAGA coalition — the one he thought he’d conquered — is moving on without him.Chapters(Minor mic issues during the first 3 minutes of our interview with Kevin, stick with it.)00:00:00 - Intro00:02:57 - Elon vs. the Big Beautiful Bill00:16:36 - Interview with Kevin Ryan00:41:38 - Update00:41:56 - Trump's ...
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    1 時間 40 分
  • Elon Trashes Trump's Bill! Breaking Down the Best 2024 Election Insights Yet (with Michael Cohen)

    Elon Trashes Trump's Bill! Breaking Down the Best 2024 Election Insights Yet (with Michael Cohen)
    2025/06/04
    Elon Musk set off a grenade in conservative circles this week, trashing the one big, beautiful bill Trump has staked so much on. He didn’t just throw shade — he called it a “disgusting abomination,” backed Rand Paul’s $5 trillion deficit claim, and waved the American flag emoji as punctuation. This wasn’t a random tweet. This was Musk choosing to detonate right as Speaker Mike Johnson is working the Senate hard to shepherd this bill into law. Johnson, for his part, did respond, claiming he had a 20-minute phone call with Musk where the topic never came up. But c’mon — that silence says a lot. Either Johnson’s not telling the whole story, or Musk baited him. Neither looks great.The timing is brutal. Musk has been a reliable MAGA ally — hosting DeSantis’s launch, reshaping Twitter into a free speech battleground, becoming a key donor and message amplifier. When he turns on your signature policy, it signals open season. And it’s not just personal. Elon hates the EV credit phase-outs in the bill. He’s furious about the AI regulatory overrides that strip individual from states like California. And his businesses, from SpaceX to Starlink, all have reasons to be wary of the bill’s broader tech oversight. So what looked like a united conservative front just fractured — and it fractured loudly. This is the part of the process where fights get public. And loud. And weird.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Iowa and the 2024 RemapIt’s moments like this that make me appreciate the Iowa caucus even more. Say what you will about the process — yes, it’s clunky, yes, it can be exclusionary — but nobody works harder at retail politics than Iowans. I’ve been in diners, VFW halls, and school gyms across that state. These are folks who grill candidates, push policy details, and actually pay attention. Compare that to South Carolina, which Biden bumped to the front of the line for the Democratic primary. That move was clearly strategic — to avoid an early embarrassment — but it came at a cost. The engagement just isn’t the same. You can walk into a bar in Manchester and get into a policy debate with a random guy sipping Busch Light. That’s not happening in Columbia.Now, there’s a window to fix it. With 2024 settled, both parties could realign the primary calendar — and they should. Let Iowa go first. Let New Hampshire follow. Put South Carolina third, Nevada fourth. Let people earn it. The current process is dominated by consultants who don’t want surprises. But surprises are good. They shake things up. They reveal flaws. They test candidates in real-time, not just in sanitized TV town halls. If you want to know who can campaign in a blizzard, let 'em face a real one. Bring back the vetting. Bring back the grit.Deal Deadlines and Tiers of ImportanceThen there’s the global chessboard. June marks the end of the 90-day tariff pause Trump announced on Liberation Day — his dramatic trade reset. That pause gave negotiators time to cut new deals, to defuse tensions. But with just weeks left, where are the deals? Trump hasn’t sealed anything. Not with China. Not with India. Not with Vietnam, or Mexico, or even Taiwan. Instead, he’s hosting white paper summits and showing off 2017 flashbacks. The branding is tight, but the substance is lagging.Look at the scoreboard. Ukraine was inching toward peace talks — then dropped a drone strike that disabled a third of Russia’s bomber fleet. That doesn’t scream “diplomatic breakthrough.” Gaza? The American-backed aid initiative is collapsing under mutual mistrust and unconfirmed shootings. We’re left trying to guess which footage is real and which claims are propaganda. And while all this plays out, the trade environment remains stuck. Japan, South Korea, Australia — they’re locked into frameworks that don’t need rewriting. The real action would be a comprehensive tariff reset with Mexico or Vietnam, or a groundbreaking semiconductor pact with Taiwan. But so far, we’re getting press releases, not treaties.So here’s how I see it. You’ve got three tiers of trade potential. Tier 1: countries that matter symbolically — Canada, UK, the Netherlands. Deals here look good but don’t move markets. Tier 2: mid-size powerhouses like South Korea, Japan, and Germany. All three matter for automotives, while South Korea and Japan both matter for their tech sectors. Finally, Tier 3 is where it counts: China, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, India. If Trump can close one deal there, he regains the upper hand. If he can’t, he enters the summer with big talk and no wins — just in time for Senate Democrats to go on offense. Time is ticking.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:10 - Elon Trashes the BBB00:08:09 - Iowa Caucus 00:11:24 - Trump Trade Tiers00:22:14 - Interview with Michael Cohen00:49:52 - Update00:50:33 - Big ...
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  • The Dems' Men Problem. Diving Deep into the Internet's Darkest Corners (with Kirk Bado and Katherine Dee)

    The Dems' Men Problem. Diving Deep into the Internet's Darkest Corners (with Kirk Bado and Katherine Dee)
    2025/05/29

    When it comes to tariffs, we’ve done the hokey pokey and turned ourselves around — and yes, that is what it’s all about. Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are back on the table, and it’s been a wild 24 hours.

    Right after I wrapped our paid bonus episode, a three-judge panel ruled that Donald Trump doesn’t have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — the IEPA — to unilaterally place tariffs on foreign nations. That law, which dates back to the 1970s, gives the president emergency powers to impose economic sanctions or tariffs if there’s a national emergency. Trump had been using it as the backbone for his tariff strategy, claiming national emergency status and going after trading partners.

    The ruling, at least temporarily, blew that up. If Trump doesn’t have that authority, he loses a huge leverage point in trade negotiations. All of a sudden, the calls from the EU, from Japan, from India — which I’ve heard is close — they get a lot slower. The power dynamic shifts. Trump becomes just another guy asking for a deal, not the guy with a threat to back it up. And to be clear, he wasn’t actively raising tariffs — he’d actually pulled many of them back or paused them — but that’s part of the strategy. The threat of a tariff can be just as powerful as the tariff itself.

    The markets liked the news. Stocks surged. And Trump was caught in a classic rock-and-a-hard-place moment. But then, just as I was landing and debating whether to even record, the appellate court reverses the first ruling. Suddenly, Trump’s back in the game. His authority over the IEPA is restored… for now.

    Does this matter for what’s happening in the Senate right now? Probably not directly. But for trade negotiations? Absolutely. I think deals are going to move fast. If you’re a trading partner and you think there’s a window before this hits the Supreme Court — and it might — you move. You get your best deal now. You say, “Here’s the offer, take it or leave it,” and Trump might be more inclined to take it than he was before.

    I’m not a trade expert. I’m just calling it like I see it. But from the seat of my pants, this looks like a flashpoint. The kind of legal back-and-forth that opens the door to some quicker deals than we otherwise might’ve seen.

    Chapters

    00:00:00 - Intro

    00:00:55 - Interview with Kirk Bado

    00:47:30 - Update and Tariff Madness

    00:52:13 - Interview with Katherine Dee

    01:25:25 - Wrap-up



    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
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