Smart Investing with Brent & Chase Wilsey

著者： Brent & Chase Wilsey
無料で聴く

  • サマリー

  • Smart Investing is the radio show where Brent and Chase try to make investing easier to understand. They demonstrate long-term investment strategies to help you find good value investments.
    Copyright 2021 Wilsey Asset Management. All rights reserved.
    続きを読む 一部表示

あらすじ・解説

Smart Investing is the radio show where Brent and Chase try to make investing easier to understand. They demonstrate long-term investment strategies to help you find good value investments.
Copyright 2021 Wilsey Asset Management. All rights reserved.
個人ファイナンス 経済学
続きを読む 一部表示
エピソード
  • November 9th, 2024 | Dow Jones (DOW), Election, Retirement, Taxable Social Security, First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) & Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)

    November 9th, 2024 | Dow Jones (DOW), Election, Retirement, Taxable Social Security, First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) & Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)
    2024/11/09
    Major changes to the Dow Jones you should know about! The Dow Jones has changed again as Nvidia (NVDA) replaced Intel (INTC) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) replaced Dow Inc. (DOW). The most recent change in the Dow Jones came on February 26th when Amazon (AMZN) replaced Walgreens (WBA). With the addition of Nvidia, much of the Mag Seven will now be present in the Dow Jones. As I mentioned Amazon was recently added, but Apple and Microsoft have been components for many years. It seems the Dow has really lost relevance as it has trailed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in popularity and performance. I worry adding NVDA at this point in time could be buying high and at times the committee has had poorly timed decisions. Back in August 2020 the committee ended up doing a three-company swap as they eliminated Exxon, Pfizer, and Raytheon and added Amgen, Honeywell, and Salesforce. The interesting swap was Exxon (XOM) for Salesforce (CRM) considering XOM is up close to 200% not including dividends during that time period while CRM is up just around 10% during the same timeframe. Another poor decision came back in June 2018 when the committee swapped General Electric (GE) for Walgreens (WBA). Since the switch GE is up over 180% and I don’t believe that return even includes the benefit of the spinoffs GE Vernova and GE Healthcare, which would make the return even more attractive. During the same timeframe, Walgreens has had a rough time and the stock has actually fallen over 80%. While some maybe excited about the move, I wouldn’t be surprised if Intel actually outperformed Nvidia over the next 5 years. The election is over, what investors should do now! My belief is that your plan should not have a drastic change after the Trump win, but there may be small changes to keep an eye on. The first thing I would tell people is to be careful chasing proposed winners or selling potential losers this early in the game. Ultimately, we don’t know exactly what policy changes he will be able to implement and we don’t even know at this point who will fill his cabinet. I was bullish on financials before the Trump win, but now that he will be entering office the group will likely benefit from a more relaxed regulatory environment compared to the current administration. Regional banks in particular look like they could be big beneficiaries, but be careful as many already had a big first day move after the election results. I was somewhat surprised to see big tech as a big winner as well, but it seems in today’s world everything is good for big tech. If you have been following us, you know we are skeptical of many of these big tech companies due to excessive valuations and frankly I just don’t see how a Trump presidency would be overly positive for the group. Especially considering both Trump and VP elect JD Vance have been critical of the group in the past. I would not be surprised to see continued regulatory pressure for some of these companies even after the change in the White House. Health care is also an interesting sector with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being a large part of the Trump campaign considering his criticisms of vaccines and the food system. While this is something to keep your eye on, I don’t believe the group is completely doomed and in fact you could find some opportunities if stock prices continue to be pressured. Green energy is also in the cross hairs and many of these companies saw large declines after the results. While this may be an area of concern if the Inflation Reduction Act is repealed, I believe investors may be able to find some good opportunities if these businesses can maintain profits especially considering our need for more energy. At this point in time, I would wait for more clarity on that space as changes to tax credits could totally disrupt the current earnings picture for many of these businesses. Overall, you may be excited or disappointed with the results, but ultimately the strategy of investing in good quality companies at fair prices over the long term should not change! Do you think you will be able to retire when the time comes? At Wilsey Asset Management we continue to work very hard to encourage people to invest for retirement and also to invest wisely so they can retire at a reasonable age. What is a reasonable age? Most would say 65 but in recent surveys the average age is 62, that's a surprise to me. What is also a surprise is that in 2002 the average age of retirement was 59, and in 1991 it was 57. Could it be because people are living longer and are getting bored in retirement for 20 years or longer? I’m not sure of the reason why but it seems like we have to work a little bit harder based on a survey from New York Life that says 22% of retirees think they may never be able to retire. I have often said getting old is not that great but getting old and not having a good investment portfolio, well that can be devastating. Be sure you are taking advantage of workplace ...
    続きを読む 一部表示
    56 分
  • November 2nd, 2024 | Presidential Elections, Job Openings, Job Report, The GDP, Retirement Plan Allocations, Chewy, Inc. (CHWY), Genuine Parts Company (CPG) & ASML Holding (ASML)

    November 2nd, 2024 | Presidential Elections, Job Openings, Job Report, The GDP, Retirement Plan Allocations, Chewy, Inc. (CHWY), Genuine Parts Company (CPG) & ASML Holding (ASML)
    2024/11/01
    Don’t let the presidential election be your investment indicator Presidential elections, especially this one, make people become very emotional, but don’t let that sway you away from investing. Looking back to 1950, the S&P 500 index gained 12.1% per year under Democrats and 7.1% under Republicans. So based on that tad bit of information, you would think that Democrats are better for the stock market than Republicans. If we dig deeper, we will see that Nixon had a major negative impact as he left office in August 1974. This was at the end of the 73-74 market crash when the S&P 500 was down 48%. The other Republican who had bad timing was George W. Bush, who was in office from 2001 to 2009. The S&P 500 dropped 38% in 2008 during the Great Recession and wiped out all the previous gains in the stock market while George W. Bush was in office. Looking more recently, there were investors who hated Trump as President and when he got into office, they sold their stocks missing an average annual return of 13.8% per year while he was President. The same thing happened in 2020 when Joe Biden became president, many Republicans thought the world was coming to an end and sold their stocks. The gain in the stock market under Joe Biden so far has been an 11.9% average annual return. The best advice I can give you is do not look at the President for any type of analysis on stocks, there are so many other factors at play rather than just who is in the White House. Instead, I recommend you look at the equities you are investing in and ask yourself how will they do going forward. Ultimately, businesses will find ways to succeed regardless who the President of the United States is. Job openings continue to decline, is that a problem? In the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs), job openings declined to 7.44 million. This was below both the expectation of 8.0 million and the prior month’s reading of 7.9 million, which was revised lower by 179,000. This also marked the lowest level of job openings since January 2021. While this all sounds negative, there are still around 1.1 job openings per available worker. Also, this should be positive for inflationary concerns as the labor market is now more balanced when looking at the relationship between employers and employees. When employees have way more power like we saw over the last few years, it can have a big impact on wage inflation, which generally feeds through to overall inflation. While this isn’t an overly exciting report, I believe it still shows the labor market is in a good place. I think we could see job openings even fall a little further before it would become a concern. Based on Friday’s job report, it looks like the economy is in trouble, but it’s not! We have not seen numbers like these in the jobs report since 2020 with nonfarm payrolls only increasing by 12,000 for the month. The expectation was job creation of 100,000 jobs. Why the big miss? Right off the bat the strike of Boeing was a loss of an estimated 44,000 jobs and who can forget the two hurricanes we had in the south. It’s currently unclear how many jobs were lost during that timeframe due to those natural disasters. On the positive side, average hourly earnings did increase 0.4% for the month, which was above the estimate and the 12 month gain of 4% held steady. Revisions to August and September took out 112,000 jobs bringing the August number to only 78,000 and September’s gain declined down to 223,000 jobs. Temporary jobs are sometimes seen as underlying strength of a job market, but they have declined by 577,000 jobs since March 2022. We don’t feel this is the indicator that it used to be and we expect to see some reversal of temporary jobs for the holiday hiring season. This should start being reflected in the next month or two. The hurricanes in the south were a hit to leisure and hospitality as I’m sure many bars and restaurants were closed and the category saw drop of 4000 jobs in the month. Only two sectors in the job market saw increases which was healthcare as it added 52,000 jobs and government experienced an increase of 40,000 jobs. On the surface, the job report looks frightening, but we are out of hurricane season and heading into the holiday season. I think you’ll see a reversal in the job market in the next 2 to 3 jobs reports, which should be rather positive. Not as positive as it was during the expansion when we were recovering from Covid, but definitely better than a 12,000 job increase! There are two meetings left for the Federal Reserve and I think this job’s report would allow them to cut rates by a quarter point at the next meeting. For the last meeting of the year, we will wait for more economic data before predicting another rate. Is the US economy still growing? The GDP shows it is. While Q3 GDP, which stands for Gross Domestic Product, growth of 2.8% came in below the expectation of 3.1% and Q2’s reading of 3.0%, it ...
    続きを読む 一部表示
    56 分
  • October 26th, 2024 | T-Bills, Tesla, Luxury Brands, Inheritance Issues with Annuities, Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI), Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) & Highwood Properties, Inc. (HIW)

    October 26th, 2024 | T-Bills, Tesla, Luxury Brands, Inheritance Issues with Annuities, Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI), Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) & Highwood Properties, Inc. (HIW)
    2024/10/28
    T-bills could be your worst investment Right off the bat you’re thinking what how could they say such a thing? Warren Buffett has hundreds of billions of dollars in T-bills! Why do we think it’s the worst investment? First off, Warren Buffett spends all day long reading, researching, analyzing and when he sees a good value investment, he will likely sell what he needs from T-bills to buy those good long-term investments. If you are someone that needs the money in 2 to 3 years, then this belief does not apply to you as T-bills are a great place to have your short-term money. But if you’re a longer-term investor, and you want your money to grow for you, I worry that T-bills are not a great place for you. What will likely happen is that you will feel safe for a while, especially when the correction comes. You’ll be glad you have money in T-bills, but you probably won’t pull the trigger when lower equity prices arrive because you will feel comfortable with the safety and no volatility of your T-bills. Unfortunately, what will then happen down the road is you will eventually get tired of getting a lower return as interest rates drop and your T-bill is only earning you 2 to 3%. You will then likely want to move to something else and maybe do something silly like look at the past performance of equities and buy after stocks go back up after the correction. When it comes to investing, be sure to use the right tool for the right job. A T-bill is not the right tool for long term investors unless you really are a skilled investor and know how to navigate the volatility in equities. One forgotten component of Tesla’s business has a huge impact on profits! Tesla reported numbers that were ahead of analyst expectations, but I wouldn’t say I was overly impressed. Sales increased 8% compared to last year and earnings per share of 72 cents did top expectations of 58 cents. This was a growth of 9.1% for EPS when compared to Q3 2023 EPS of 66 cents. The interesting component that people forget about is revenue from automotive regulatory tax credits. To comply with emissions regulations that are set by authorities including the United States and European Union, other automakers purchase credits from Tesla. In the most recent quarter, this added $739 million worth of revenue. While this is just under 3% of total revenue, this is essentially pure profit for the company, which means it likely accounted for close to 34% of the company’s $2.17 B worth of net income. As other companies continue to ramp up their own EV and hybrid plans, a big question I would have is will they need as many credits from Tesla? Also, if there is a change in leadership after this election, will there be a reduction in regulatory requirements that could decrease the need for other automakers to purchase these credits? This could cause problems for Tesla as it would lose a very high margin component of its business. It is hard to bet against Elon considering his successes, but I have a hard time recommending this stock since it still trades at around 70x 2025 expected earnings. With that type of multiple we need to see much higher growth for sales and earnings than what we saw this quarter. Elon did mention his “best guess” for vehicle growth next year is 20% to 30%, which is one reason the stock shot higher. This seems quite ambitious and I’d be curious where that growth is expected to come from. I would say Tesla bulls continue to point towards autonomy as a potential reason to buy the stock, but at this point I would say that is a huge gamble given the elevated level of uncertainty in that space. Elon did say on the earnings call that Tesla has developed a ride-hailing app that some employees in California have been able to use this year and he expects the service to roll out for public use next year in California and Texas. The company intends to use it for a robotaxi network in the future. With that said, according to a list of permits issued on the California Public Utilities Commission’s website, Tesla isn’t currently licensed to operate a commercial, transportation network company or ride-hailing service in California. From a regulatory standpoint, I would say Tesla is behind both Waymo and Cruise. Luxury brands lose excitement as thriftiness takes over in this slowing economy Luxury brands like Gucci, Louis Vuitton and Chanel have seen a big decline in their sales growth. These luxury brands have increased their prices so much to try and keep their products exclusive. The push back towards exclusivity came after the Covid giveaway years where many consumers became short term purchasers. Unfortunately, this has turned off their normal elite customers who saw how ridiculous it was to see prices climb from 2019 to 2024 by 50 to 100 percent. They may be rich, but they are not stupid. As things have slowed, on social media and YouTube frugality has become cool once again. This includes talking about the deals ...
    続きを読む 一部表示
    56 分

Smart Investing with Brent & Chase Wilseyに寄せられたリスナーの声

カスタマーレビュー：以下のタブを選択することで、他のサイトのレビューをご覧になれます。

Audible.co.jp

Amazon.co.jp
レビューはまだありません。