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Tariff Shockwave: Is Your State's Housing Market the Next Casualty?
- 2025/04/22
- 再生時間： 12 分
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あらすじ・解説
Welcome to the podcast! In this episode, we’re diving into a potentially significant issue for the real estate market: the impact of tariff policies. While tariffs are often set at the national level, their effects are far from uniform across the country. Understanding these nuances is crucial for real estate professionals, homebuyers, and anyone invested in the housing market.Our title, “Tariff Shockwave: Is Your State's Housing Market the Next Casualty?” hints at the potential for significant and varied impacts. We’ll explore how different state economies, particularly their reliance on global exports and imports, can influence their vulnerability to changes in tariff policies.NAR Senior Economist Nadia Evangelou has provided valuable analysis on this topic. Her research breaks down how tariff policies could affect home sales differently in each state. It's essential to recognize that some states have economies built around producing goods like cars and electronics for international sale (exports), while others heavily rely on bringing in products like car parts and machinery from other countries (imports).According to Evangelou’s analysis, states with a high percentage of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) derived from exports, such as Louisiana (leading with approximately 27% from energy and chemicals) and Texas (around 17% from oil, gas, chemicals, and tech), could experience both positive and negative ripple effects from global supply chain shifts. A surge in global demand could support their growth, but disruptions like factory shutdowns overseas or sudden tariffs could present challenges.Conversely, states leading in imports as a percentage of their GDP, such as Kentucky (around 32%), Michigan (around 35%), and Indiana (around 20%), are particularly reliant on these imports for industries like car production and overall industrial output. Tariffs on these imported goods could significantly impact their economies. Interestingly, some states, like Kentucky and Texas, rely heavily on both imports and exports, making them even more susceptible to global trade policy changes. Their robust manufacturing logistics position them as key players in facilitating the movement of goods across borders, but this also means they are more likely to experience the consequences of global supply chain shifts.One of the most pressing concerns within the housing market relates to the new-home sector. Builders have expressed worry about how tariff policies could increase their costs. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that the average new home could see a cost increase of around $9,200 due to recent tariff actions. These tariffs affect essential building materials such as lumber, steel, aluminum, copper, home appliances, and gypsum (used in drywall). Since approximately 7% of all goods used in new residential construction in 2024 were imported, these tariffs could put significant upward pressure on builders' costs, which could ultimately be passed on to homebuyers.Furthermore, trade policy can also have an impact on the labor market. States more dependent on trade, such as Texas and Michigan, might experience greater fluctuations in their job markets due to changes in trade policies. Since people and income are fundamental drivers of housing markets, these trickle-down effects on labor could indirectly impact housing demand and price growth. Historically, states with rapid job growth in sectors like tech and services, high levels of domestic migration, and limited housing supply have often led in home price growth. States with smaller levels of exports may be less vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions and can attract knowledge economy jobs or retirees, further boosting housing demand.In conclusion, the health of a state's housing market is ultimately driven by where people want to live and work, not solely where goods are produced or shipped. However, tariff policies can significantly influence both of these factors. To understand how your specific state might be affected, be sure to check out NAR’s searchable chart, as mentioned in REALTOR® Magazine. This resource can provide a clearer picture of the potential impact in your area, allowing real estate professionals and consumers to better prepare for any potential tariff shockwaves. Stay informed to navigate the evolving landscape of the housing market in the face of changing global trade policies.Our next step could be to delve deeper into the specific mechanisms through which tariffs on certain materials directly impact new home construction costs, or we could explore how real estate professionals can best advise their clients in states particularly vulnerable to trade policy changes.