In this episode of the Brinkman Report, host Kevin Brinkman, along with COO Dan Metzger and CFO Peter Yoo, explores the state of the multifamily market, particularly in the Mountain West. They discuss the sharp decline in new apartment starts following a peak in 2023, its impact on supply and demand, and regional rent growth trends—highlighting Boise and Missoula’s positive outlook versus Salt Lake City’s oversupply challenges. The conversation covers tenant retention strategies, labor market difficulties, and the insurance and financing landscape, where agency lenders offer competitive terms. They conclude with a stable outlook on interest rates, emphasizing the need for strategic management to navigate market fluctuations.

GUEST INFO:

Pete Yoo, CFO, Brinkman Real Estate

pete.yoo@brinkmanre.com

Dan Metzger, COO, Brinkman Real Estate

dan.metzger@brinkmanre.com

In this episode, Kevin Brinkman hosts an insightful discussion with legal expert Russell Hedman and entrepreneur Sasha Stern. They dive into their predictions for the economy in 2025, covering key topics such as interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, and the impact of AI on the labor market.

Discover their thoughts on the future of real estate, the potential for a soft landing in the economy, and the implications of deregulation in various sectors. They also explore the evolving landscape of sports team valuations and the transformative potential of autonomous vehicles on urban real estate.

GUEST INFO:

Russell Hedman, Partner, Hogan Lovells

russell.hedman@hoganlovells.com

Russell Hedman leads and negotiates complex M&A and investment transactions around the world, with a particular focus on sports teams and private equity. Russell's combination of experience and enthusiasm has made him a trusted advisor to clients across industries.

Russell’s notable sports team transactions include leading the acquisition of the Denver Broncos for the Walton-Penner ownership group, the buyout and subsequent sale of the Brooklyn Nets and the Barclays Center for Onexim Sports & Entertainment Holdings, and the 2021 recapitalization of the San Antonio Spurs.

Russell also leads transactions for numerous private equity and venture capital sponsors working across industries, including Mountaingate Capital, Talkot Capital, SymBiosis Capital Management and various others sponsors and portfolio companies.

An active contributor to the Denver community, Russell’s current and past board roles include the Colorado Black Chamber of Commerce (policy committee chair), Ensemble Innovation Ventures (parent company to Delta Dental of Colorado), Denver Public Schools Foundation, Rocky Mountain Prep and Youth On Record.

Russell graduated from Harvard Law School in 2011, where he served on the academic affairs committee of the Harvard Black Law Students Association. He also co-founded the Harvard Caribbean Law Association.

Sasha Shtern, CEO, Goally

sasha@zerogcapital.com Sasha is a long-time Denver resident and serial entrepreneur. In high school he wanted to be a race car driver, so he wrenched on cars for two years in the vocational auto program. Then he studied finance at the University of Colorado with the hope of being a stockbroker. Sasha got his business start selling bathtubs on Ebay in the early 2000s. That venture evolved into a successful ecommerce business and home improvement manufacturing business. Sasha was president of Entrepreneurs Organization Colorado, co-founder of Ethereum Denver, and founder of Colorado Liftoff. As a coach and mentor, Sasha has worked with over 200 business owners.

In this episode of The Brinkman Report, Kevin Brinkman interviews John Chang, National Director of Research and Advisory Services at Marcus & Millichap, about the multifamily real estate market. They explore how interest rates and economic conditions are shaping supply, demand, and transaction dynamics. Chang notes a slowdown in new construction, particularly in secondary and tertiary markets, due to rising costs and high interest rates, which may lead to upward pressure on rents. While transaction activity has dipped since the 2021-2022 peak, significant capital remains poised for a resurgence if interest rates stabilize. Discussing potential recession risks, Chang expresses cautious optimism, citing strong consumer fundamentals and housing demand as key supports for the sector. GUEST BIO:

John Chang

Senior Vice President, National Director Research Services

Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services

John Chang serves as the National Director of Research Services for Marcus & Millichap. He is responsible for the production of the firm’s vast array of commercial real estate research publications, tools and services. Under his leadership, Marcus & Millichap has become a leading source of market analysis, insight and forecasting, and the firm’s research is regularly quoted throughout the industry and in mainstream business media.

John oversees a team of dedicated real estate research professionals who produce the firm’s more than 1,000 annual market research publications and conference presentations. These detailed reports, analyses and presentations integrate economic and financial market trends with insights on all major commercial property types including: Hotels, Industrial, Manufactured Housing, Multifamily, Office, Medical Office, Retail Multi-Tenant, Retail Single-Tenant, Self-Storage and Seniors Housing.

John is a seasoned industry analyst who has been qu ted in numerous publications and is an active member of the NMHC Research Foundation Advisory Committee, the ICSC North American Research Task Force and the NAIOP Research Foundation. He regularly presents at a wide range of conferences and events hosted by industry-leading organizations such as the NMHC, NAIOP, ULI, CCIM, ICSC, SSA and numerous others.

John joined Marcus & Millichap in April 1997 as a Research Manager in the Seattle office.

After holding executive marketing and e-business positions with premier residential real estate firms in the Pacific Northwest, he rejoined Marcus & Millichap in November 2007 as the head of its Research Services division.

John was elected as Vice President in 2010, advanced to First Vice President in 2013 and promoted to Senior Vice President in 2018.

This month, Kevin welcomes Ian Silverii, host of the Get More Smarter podcast and a prominent figure in Colorado politics. Together, they discuss political shifts in key states, what a supermajority means for business and real estate, and Ian’s thoughts on prediction markets, poll reporting, and the future of US debt. Ian also shares why real estate investors should engage more with government to influence policy outcomes.

They dive into the implications of ranked choice voting, state and federal ballot initiatives to watch, and how a divided government might impact real estate investment. Plus, Ian gives a glimpse into what it’s like co-parenting with a U.S. Congresswoman. Don’t miss this insightful discussion on the intersection of politics, business, and family.

In this episode, we sit down with Marcel Arsenault, a real estate entrepreneur and philanthropist, to hear his incredible journey from making ice cream in his dorm room to becoming one of the largest private owners of commercial real estate in the western United States, with investments totaling $5.1 billion in acquisition value. Marcel shares the key strategies that have helped him navigate the ups and downs of the real estate industry—what he calls the "real estate rodeos"—and offers his grim forecast for the economy and thus the real estate buying opportunities that will likely arise in 2025.

Beyond business, Marcel and his wife have turned their success into a force for good by establishing foundations aimed at solving some of the world's biggest challenges. As participants in The Giving Pledge, they are committed to using their wealth to make a lasting impact. Don't miss this inspiring conversation with one of real estate's most dynamic figures.

ABOUT MARCEL ARSENAULT

marsenault@realcapitalsolutions.com Marcel approaches the real estate business from an academic perspective, constantly reading and analyzing the industry to better understand the story behind the story of real estate cycles. His company, Real Capital Solutions, has purchased and managed more than 395 real estate assets, totaling approximately $5.1 billion in acquisition value. RCS currently has $2.4 billion in Assets Under Management. Marcel is one of the most active private owners of commercial real estate in the western United States. By constantly monitoring developments in the real estate industry, he tries to be ahead of the game. Marcel describes himself as a “real estate theorist who lives in the real world.”

During his career, Arsenault has completed workouts on more than 10 million square feet of property acquired during the RTC and savings and loan crisis and accurately predicted the housing-led U.S. recession, selling 80 percent of his portfolio at market peak. His considerable entrepreneurial experience has enabled him to build strong teams and direct rapidly growing companies. He is frequently contacted by the media to share his expertise; he’s appeared in INC Magazine, Colorado Real Estate Journal, TIME Magazine and Bloomberg News.

Marcel Arsenault is also the Founder & Chairman of One Earth Future Foundation.

One Earth Future Foundation leads initiatives to improve systems that prevent armed conflict through governance. To date, Marcel and his wife Cynda have contributed over $100 million to OEF and two related foundations. With 75 current employees, OEF is growing rapidly and expects to employ over 400 in the next 10 years. OEF’s areas of focus include: Enhancing maritime cooperation: Oceans Beyond Piracy (OBP) works to facilitate such cooperation around maritime piracy, and Secure Fisheries brings attention to global trends around illegal, unreported, and unregulated, fishing (which precipitates conflict and generated Somali piracy). OBP played an integral part in the release of 26 hostages after being held by Somali pirates in 2016.

Arsenault obtained a B.Sc. degree from McGill University and pursued a Ph.D. in molecular biology at the University of Colorado before embarking on his entrepreneurial career.

In this insightful episode, we sit down with the chair of an exclusive private group for Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWI) to explore how the wealthiest among us strategically allocate their investment assets. From real estate to private equity and alternative investments, our guest shares firsthand knowledge of the trends and strategies employed by UHNWIs to grow and safeguard their wealth.

We’re joined by Doug Johnson, Chair of Tiger 21, who works closely with investors daily, offering practical advice on wealth creation and preservation. Whether you're looking to understand the mindset of the ultra-wealthy or seeking actionable tips for your own financial journey, this episode provides valuable insights into the sophisticated world of UHNWI investments. Tune in to discover how the wealthiest stay ahead in an ever-changing financial landscape.

Doug Johnson | doug.johnson@tiger21chair.com

Doug Johnson chairs three TIGER 21 groups in Denver and a Family Office Group. Husband to Jennifer, father to Jake and Dane and stepfather to Josephine and Evan, Doug and his family are at home in Fort Collins, Colorado. A past investment and trust advisor, his experience includes public markets, direct investments, banking, venture, deal sourcing and syndication. In addition, Doug has served on several boards and commissions primarily focused on education and economic development.

This month’s episode is all about the economy and peaking under the hood to see where professionals with the most skin in the game are placing their bets. We welcome Joe Hegener, Chief Investment Officer and founder of Asterozoa Capital Management, an alternatives investment manager and advisor. Joe and Kevin talk about recent developments in the economy, the many moving parts of the U.S. election, growing geopolitical tensions, fiscal policy, and more, and the predictions of the downstream effects on capital markets. Joe speaks to where he sees the economy going, his predictions on interest rates and the yield curve, and the many scenarios he’s watching to determine investment strategy for his clients.

JOE HEGENER BIO: Joe is the CIO and founder of Asterozoa Capital Management. Previously, Joe was CIO of an event-driven hedge fund, where he developed and implemented fund strategy. Joe also worked on a high-discretion fixed income trading desk at PIMCO, contributing to structuring trades for $125 billion in assets under management across varying strategies, asset classes, and investment guidelines. Before PIMCO, Joe worked in portfolio analytics and advisory for institutional clients at BlackRock, serving as a key point of contact to the CIO and CRO of pension funds, central banks, and insurance companies as well as groups internally. Joe graduated from the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in Economics.

JOE HEGENER CONTACT INFO: joe@asterozoacapital.com / 858.692.8461 / www.asterozoacapital.com

The million-dollar question: how do you forecast interest rates in this unprecedented market? The Wall Street Journal’s go-to expert on interest rate hedging, Carol Ng with Derivative Logic, shares how she forecasts interest rates for her clients and digs into the details of:

• how headlines move the market;
• why employment rates don’t tell the whole story;
• how political instability impacts the yield;
• how hedging is used in real estate;
• and more.

GUEST:

Carol Ng, CFA

Managing Director | Derivative Logic

O: 415-510-2100 | D: 303-539-5883

⁠cng@derivativelogic.com⁠ I ⁠derivativelogic.com⁠ | ⁠Book an appointment⁠

Carol Ng is a Managing Director of Derivative Logic. Her prior experiences include assisting commercial real estate firms, regional banks, credit unions, and private equity firms with managing interest rate and FX exposures at both Chatham and Derivative Path. She also spent time at Western Union as part of the capital markets team managing FX risk for their money transfer business.