In this episode of The Brinkman Report, Kevin Brinkman interviews John Chang, National Director of Research and Advisory Services at Marcus & Millichap, about the multifamily real estate market. They explore how interest rates and economic conditions are shaping supply, demand, and transaction dynamics. Chang notes a slowdown in new construction, particularly in secondary and tertiary markets, due to rising costs and high interest rates, which may lead to upward pressure on rents. While transaction activity has dipped since the 2021-2022 peak, significant capital remains poised for a resurgence if interest rates stabilize. Discussing potential recession risks, Chang expresses cautious optimism, citing strong consumer fundamentals and housing demand as key supports for the sector. GUEST BIO:

John Chang

Senior Vice President, National Director Research Services

Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services

John Chang serves as the National Director of Research Services for Marcus & Millichap. He is responsible for the production of the firm’s vast array of commercial real estate research publications, tools and services. Under his leadership, Marcus & Millichap has become a leading source of market analysis, insight and forecasting, and the firm’s research is regularly quoted throughout the industry and in mainstream business media.

John oversees a team of dedicated real estate research professionals who produce the firm’s more than 1,000 annual market research publications and conference presentations. These detailed reports, analyses and presentations integrate economic and financial market trends with insights on all major commercial property types including: Hotels, Industrial, Manufactured Housing, Multifamily, Office, Medical Office, Retail Multi-Tenant, Retail Single-Tenant, Self-Storage and Seniors Housing.

John is a seasoned industry analyst who has been qu ted in numerous publications and is an active member of the NMHC Research Foundation Advisory Committee, the ICSC North American Research Task Force and the NAIOP Research Foundation. He regularly presents at a wide range of conferences and events hosted by industry-leading organizations such as the NMHC, NAIOP, ULI, CCIM, ICSC, SSA and numerous others.

John joined Marcus & Millichap in April 1997 as a Research Manager in the Seattle office.

After holding executive marketing and e-business positions with premier residential real estate firms in the Pacific Northwest, he rejoined Marcus & Millichap in November 2007 as the head of its Research Services division.

John was elected as Vice President in 2010, advanced to First Vice President in 2013 and promoted to Senior Vice President in 2018.

This month, Kevin welcomes Ian Silverii, host of the Get More Smarter podcast and a prominent figure in Colorado politics. Together, they discuss political shifts in key states, what a supermajority means for business and real estate, and Ian’s thoughts on prediction markets, poll reporting, and the future of US debt. Ian also shares why real estate investors should engage more with government to influence policy outcomes.

They dive into the implications of ranked choice voting, state and federal ballot initiatives to watch, and how a divided government might impact real estate investment. Plus, Ian gives a glimpse into what it’s like co-parenting with a U.S. Congresswoman. Don’t miss this insightful discussion on the intersection of politics, business, and family.

In this episode, we sit down with Marcel Arsenault, a real estate entrepreneur and philanthropist, to hear his incredible journey from making ice cream in his dorm room to becoming one of the largest private owners of commercial real estate in the western United States, with investments totaling $5.1 billion in acquisition value. Marcel shares the key strategies that have helped him navigate the ups and downs of the real estate industry—what he calls the "real estate rodeos"—and offers his grim forecast for the economy and thus the real estate buying opportunities that will likely arise in 2025.

Beyond business, Marcel and his wife have turned their success into a force for good by establishing foundations aimed at solving some of the world's biggest challenges. As participants in The Giving Pledge, they are committed to using their wealth to make a lasting impact. Don't miss this inspiring conversation with one of real estate's most dynamic figures.

ABOUT MARCEL ARSENAULT

marsenault@realcapitalsolutions.com Marcel approaches the real estate business from an academic perspective, constantly reading and analyzing the industry to better understand the story behind the story of real estate cycles. His company, Real Capital Solutions, has purchased and managed more than 395 real estate assets, totaling approximately $5.1 billion in acquisition value. RCS currently has $2.4 billion in Assets Under Management. Marcel is one of the most active private owners of commercial real estate in the western United States. By constantly monitoring developments in the real estate industry, he tries to be ahead of the game. Marcel describes himself as a “real estate theorist who lives in the real world.”

During his career, Arsenault has completed workouts on more than 10 million square feet of property acquired during the RTC and savings and loan crisis and accurately predicted the housing-led U.S. recession, selling 80 percent of his portfolio at market peak. His considerable entrepreneurial experience has enabled him to build strong teams and direct rapidly growing companies. He is frequently contacted by the media to share his expertise; he’s appeared in INC Magazine, Colorado Real Estate Journal, TIME Magazine and Bloomberg News.

Marcel Arsenault is also the Founder & Chairman of One Earth Future Foundation.

One Earth Future Foundation leads initiatives to improve systems that prevent armed conflict through governance. To date, Marcel and his wife Cynda have contributed over $100 million to OEF and two related foundations. With 75 current employees, OEF is growing rapidly and expects to employ over 400 in the next 10 years. OEF’s areas of focus include: Enhancing maritime cooperation: Oceans Beyond Piracy (OBP) works to facilitate such cooperation around maritime piracy, and Secure Fisheries brings attention to global trends around illegal, unreported, and unregulated, fishing (which precipitates conflict and generated Somali piracy). OBP played an integral part in the release of 26 hostages after being held by Somali pirates in 2016.

Arsenault obtained a B.Sc. degree from McGill University and pursued a Ph.D. in molecular biology at the University of Colorado before embarking on his entrepreneurial career.

In this insightful episode, we sit down with the chair of an exclusive private group for Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWI) to explore how the wealthiest among us strategically allocate their investment assets. From real estate to private equity and alternative investments, our guest shares firsthand knowledge of the trends and strategies employed by UHNWIs to grow and safeguard their wealth.

We’re joined by Doug Johnson, Chair of Tiger 21, who works closely with investors daily, offering practical advice on wealth creation and preservation. Whether you're looking to understand the mindset of the ultra-wealthy or seeking actionable tips for your own financial journey, this episode provides valuable insights into the sophisticated world of UHNWI investments. Tune in to discover how the wealthiest stay ahead in an ever-changing financial landscape.

Doug Johnson | doug.johnson@tiger21chair.com

Doug Johnson chairs three TIGER 21 groups in Denver and a Family Office Group. Husband to Jennifer, father to Jake and Dane and stepfather to Josephine and Evan, Doug and his family are at home in Fort Collins, Colorado. A past investment and trust advisor, his experience includes public markets, direct investments, banking, venture, deal sourcing and syndication. In addition, Doug has served on several boards and commissions primarily focused on education and economic development.

This month’s episode is all about the economy and peaking under the hood to see where professionals with the most skin in the game are placing their bets. We welcome Joe Hegener, Chief Investment Officer and founder of Asterozoa Capital Management, an alternatives investment manager and advisor. Joe and Kevin talk about recent developments in the economy, the many moving parts of the U.S. election, growing geopolitical tensions, fiscal policy, and more, and the predictions of the downstream effects on capital markets. Joe speaks to where he sees the economy going, his predictions on interest rates and the yield curve, and the many scenarios he’s watching to determine investment strategy for his clients.

JOE HEGENER BIO: Joe is the CIO and founder of Asterozoa Capital Management. Previously, Joe was CIO of an event-driven hedge fund, where he developed and implemented fund strategy. Joe also worked on a high-discretion fixed income trading desk at PIMCO, contributing to structuring trades for $125 billion in assets under management across varying strategies, asset classes, and investment guidelines. Before PIMCO, Joe worked in portfolio analytics and advisory for institutional clients at BlackRock, serving as a key point of contact to the CIO and CRO of pension funds, central banks, and insurance companies as well as groups internally. Joe graduated from the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in Economics.

JOE HEGENER CONTACT INFO: joe@asterozoacapital.com / 858.692.8461 / www.asterozoacapital.com

The million-dollar question: how do you forecast interest rates in this unprecedented market? The Wall Street Journal’s go-to expert on interest rate hedging, Carol Ng with Derivative Logic, shares how she forecasts interest rates for her clients and digs into the details of:

• how headlines move the market;
• why employment rates don’t tell the whole story;
• how political instability impacts the yield;
• how hedging is used in real estate;
• and more.

GUEST:

Carol Ng, CFA

Managing Director | Derivative Logic

O: 415-510-2100 | D: 303-539-5883

⁠cng@derivativelogic.com⁠ I ⁠derivativelogic.com⁠ | ⁠Book an appointment⁠

Carol Ng is a Managing Director of Derivative Logic. Her prior experiences include assisting commercial real estate firms, regional banks, credit unions, and private equity firms with managing interest rate and FX exposures at both Chatham and Derivative Path. She also spent time at Western Union as part of the capital markets team managing FX risk for their money transfer business.

In this month's episode of The Brinkman Report, Kevin welcomes two industry experts from CBRE to talk about what we can expect in the near and long term from the economy, capital markets, supply, rent growth, cap rates, and more. They share their predictions for the impact to multifamily investments throughout the mountain states, grounded in their first-hand experiences and the most up-to-date market data and trends. Learn more about our guests below!

Brady O’Donnell

Vice Chairman of Debt & Structured Finance

CBRE Capital Markets

⁠brady.odonnell@cbre.com⁠

⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/brady-o-donnell-80988311/⁠

Brady O’Donnell provides leadership for CBRE Debt & Structured Finance Services in Colorado. He builds advantage for his clients through his extensive network of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, HUD, Life Insurance Company, Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS), bank, and bridge lender relationships.

With clients ranging from institutional real estate funds to local private capital investors, Brady, together with his group of Debt & Structured Finance professionals, assesses the needs of each client in developing a financing solution tailored to ownership strategies. With access to CBRE’s fully integrated, global platform, clients benefit from unparalleled resources critical to the financing process, including investments sales, marketing, research, valuation, property management and leasing.

Matt Vance

Vice President and Americas Head of Multifamily Research & Senior Economist

CBRE, CBRE Econometric Advisors

matthew.vance@cbre.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattvancecbre/

Matt Vance serves as Vice President and Americas Head of Multifamily Research for CBRE. Matt is also a Senior Economist with the CBRE Econometric Advisors—the firm’s data science and forecasting arm. His work is grounded in economic theory and designed to support a wide range of client investment strategies.

Matt is a frequent speaker at leading industry events and his research is regularly cited throughout the media including The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Newsweek and many others.

Kevin Brinkman welcomes Brinkman Real Estate's COO, Dan Metzger, to talk about what we can expect in the short- and mid-term in multifamily investing. They identify where we are in the cycle and why now is the time to be buying. Dan provides candid feedback on how new supply and inflation are affecting tenants, and how new legislation is affecting the industry.