Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report. In this podcast I go over the data and why its important as an economic indicator that influences inflation. I also discuss the correlation between unemployment and recessions.

The S&P 500 ended the week 5.1% lower due to a higher-than-expected CPI report. Friday's close was at 3900, the same level as the closing low on May 19th, which is 18.6% off the January 3rd high.  Are we in a bear market?
First-quarter GDP showed an economic contraction of 1.4%.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta recently lowered their estimate for second-quarter GDP to less than 1%.   Are we in a Recession?

Market and Economic Update
Markets rally on Fed meeting minutes.
CBO is not projecting Recession
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowers their 2nd qtr. GDP Nowcast.

What is the bond market telling us about the probability for a recession?

An update on the current levels of inflation at the consumer and wholesale level as well as indications of inflation expectations from consumers and the bond market.

In this episode I discuss the current shape of the yield curve and the spread between the 2-year and the 10-Year Treasury Notes as a recession indicator. I also take a deeper dive into the several pieces of data that came in last week.

When equity markets become volatile it's helpful to have a reasonable range for the price of an investment or the level of an index in mind to anchor expectations and avoid making an emotional decision.

There was a lot of market-moving economic news this week.
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve ended their two-day meeting and announced their plan to begin reducing asset purchases. 
Thursday, the Labor Department reported that weekly initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 269,000. 
Friday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payroll employment rose by 531,000 in October.
Pfizer announced results from their clinical trial of its experimental Covid-19 pill. 
Former head of the FDA, Dr. Scott Gotlib, said, “By January 4th, this pandemic may well be over, at least as it relates to the United States."
Portfolio Model changes in October and November.