"US Housing Market Shifts: Rising Inventory, Slowing Sales, and Changing Buyer Dynamics"

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"US Housing Market Shifts: Rising Inventory, Slowing Sales, and Changing Buyer Dynamics"

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The US housing market has entered a period of notable transition over the past 48 hours, reflecting accumulating pressures from high interest rates, shifting inventory, and fresh consumer behavior. As of July 15, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at roughly 6.7 percent, having dipped briefly below 6.5 percent in early April but quickly rebounding. These stubbornly high rates—much higher than the record 2.65 percent seen in early 2021—are tamping down buyer enthusiasm and slowing home sales in many regions.

Recent labor market strength has boosted some consumer confidence; job gains in June nudged the unemployment rate down and outpaced inflation, slightly increasing purchasing power. However, the robust jobs data also quashed hopes for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, sending borrowing costs back up and limiting affordability for many families.

Inventory is on the rise: the number of homes for sale has now increased for 20 straight months, reaching the highest post-pandemic levels. This expanded inventory, especially in Metro areas of the Sun Belt, has given buyers more leverage. In these regions, sellers face slower-moving properties and a need for price cuts. Notable buyer markets now include places like Cape Coral, San Antonio, and Phoenix, all of which witnessed surging remote-work-fueled demand during the pandemic boom. By contrast, supply remains constrained in much of the Midwest and Northeast.

Price growth is flattening on a national scale. According to the Case-Shiller index, national prices are essentially flat year-to-date, and ICE data shows annual price growth slowed to just 1.3 percent in June, the lowest in two years. Some economists warn that, unless mortgage rates fall, the housing sector could soon become a significant drag on the broader economy.

A record $56 billion in US homes were purchased by foreign buyers over the past year, up 33 percent, with nearly half of these buyers paying cash—far above the share among domestic buyers.

Industry leaders and homebuilders are increasingly offering incentives and price flexibility to attract buyers, especially in overstocked Sun Belt markets. While fears of a major price collapse remain unlikely, the market is tilting in favor of buyers for the first time in years as supply rebounds and sellers adjust expectations.

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