"US Housing Market Transition: Buyer Leverage, Inventory Growth, and Structural Challenges"

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"US Housing Market Transition: Buyer Leverage, Inventory Growth, and Structural Challenges"

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In the past 48 hours, the US housing industry has shown clear signs of transition, with market activity reflecting both a plateau and emerging buyer leverage. Recent data from Realtor.com show that after a surge in inventory growth early in 2025, the pace has leveled off, with active listings maintaining a 27 percent annual increase for three consecutive weeks. New listings rose 9.3 percent year-over-year in early July, but the overall momentum appears to be fading as more sellers pull homes from the market due to unmet price expectations. Delistings have risen 35 percent year-to-date, and 47 percent just in May, underscoring seller hesitation. Still, at 1,082,520 active listings, inventory is at its highest since late 2019, although it remains 12.9 percent below pre-pandemic norms.

Buyers are gaining ground as homes spend more time on market and the share of properties selling above asking price has dropped to a springtime low of 28 percent. Pending sales have declined 1.1 percent in the past year, and only 37.6 percent of properties under contract went pending within two weeks, the lowest spring figure since 2020. This reflects more negotiating power for buyers, pushing median sales prices down to $397,000 compared to a $425,950 median list price, a 7 percent discount.

Mortgage rates have fluctuated, with the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.87 percent as of July 13, a slight uptick from last week, though they dipped to 6.67 percent in late June and early July. This brief rate drop did spur a 9 percent jump in mortgage purchase applications for the week ending July 4.

Despite more supply and longer selling times, home prices remain near record highs, particularly as construction costs and regulatory barriers persist. Labor shortages, higher material costs, and anti-density zoning laws continue to strain affordability and supply. Industry leaders and policymakers have yet to deliver transformative solutions, with recent efforts focusing on mortgage rate reductions and proposed tax credits for first-time buyers.

Compared to previous reporting, the current period is marked by a cooling yet still expensive housing landscape, with buyers increasingly dictating terms and sellers responding with price cuts or incentives. Experts forecast a possible 1 percent price drop by year-end, and some markets have already begun to see declines. The balance of power in US housing is shifting, but structural challenges remain.

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