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When To Quit

When To Quit

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 Welcome to our listener-supported podcast, Money Talk, unpromised absolute financial truths behind financial perceptions with hosts Ed Sutkowski and Chuck LeFebvre. Let's listen in.Chuck: Welcome to Money Talk. This is Chuck.Ed: This is Ed. Today's topic is the power of knowing when to walk away. In other words, quit and based in part by the book called Quit by Annie Duke who was a professional poker player, by the way.Chuck: Oh.Ed: Made millions of dollars doing that. Gave it up to write, I guess.Chuck: Very nice.Ed: In any event, Chuck, do you have some observations of when to quit and what to quit?Chuck: Well, yea. We see this all the time, particularly with deals relating to acquisitions of businesses typically. I've actually run across this on either the side of somebody seeking to acquire a business or on the side of hoping to sell a business and people get embroiled in these discussions. They get emotionally involved in anticipation of being able to complete a transaction. Somehow the enthusiasm over reaching the finish line starts to take over the ability to analyze whether it's a good idea to get there. It seems like quite often I find myself in the position where I'm suggesting to somebody that they need to take a step back and think about if this is really something they want to do. It's swimming up against the stream, so to speak, having that discussion with people.Ed: There's really two aspects of this. There's the quantitative side, how much money, dollars, and then there's the qualitative side which gets to the question of abandoning the child, the new business or an idea. We do have an endowment effect that if you have come up with an idea that perhaps maybe is counter to the norm, you're going to really focus on that and make sure that any information you get that is counter to the norm that you rationalize as being inappropriate. In other words, it's quitting not only in terms of an investment, a job, but yourself. When do you quit? You lose your identity.Chuck: Right. Right.Ed: Can you handle quitting the loss of your identity? We see this, especially with professionals. Now many of the accounting firms and some of the large law firms, typically the large organizations have a 62 and out, which is incredible to me. Nonetheless, so those individuals lose their identity. That qualitative issue is very troublesome but in terms of when you quit. Often times whether it's identity or whether it's money, let's focus on money for a second. Typically, if you're going to quit, you typically feel that's too early.Chuck: Right.Ed: Chuck said to Pete, "Look, you got $50 million. How much more do you want?" Pete said, "Just a little more." So, it's never ending. You have to think, though, what's the expected value if you did or you did not quit? Are you going to enhance your position or not? Is it going to deteriorate? People don't think of the expected value or the absence of value to quit. People tend to hold on to losses and sell profits.Chuck: Oh, yes. You see that all the time.Ed: Your experience?Chuck: Right. You see that frequently when you're dealing with in the investment world. Right? Where someone will decide…they decided that they're going to pick some stock that they just read a story about that intrigued them or whatever. It turns out it's a company that's not doing very well and they'll follow that for years and years and years because they're sure that their initial impression of this being the next big thing must be right. It's just a matter of when it's going to finally turn around and pull a profit for them. Right?Ed: Yes, and I must tell you, I see this and neither of us do, divorce work, which is a good thing, I think.Chuck: A very good thing.Ed: In visiting with folks that are having a difficulty with the relationship when he suggested, exit the relationship. "Oh, I'm going to sunk cost. I've been married to whomever for X number of years. And we have X, Y, Z together. That sunk cost precludes them from making a decision and they forget if they had left that relationship five years earlier and either not enjoyed another one or just have been free as a bird, they'd be much better off. This question of exiting, whether it's quantitative or qualitative, but even in the divorce and marriage scenarios. This Dan Kahneman, who is really the top of the bottom that comes with these issues. He's characterized this as a sure loss aversion. In other words, you've got the loss built in, but if you stick with it, it's going to get better. What?Chuck: Right. Right. There's sort of a tax-related analogy here, which is that when you own the stock, until you sell it, you don't realize for purposes of tax reporting either the gains or the losses on that stock. Right?Ed: Right.Chuck: The idea is if you're holding a stock and it's trading at a loss, you didn't really get a loss until after you sell it.Ed: What you should do is double down. Chuck: Right.Ed: Your average, I see this with the ...

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