Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country's future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability, but recent moderate volatility.

"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.

Howard Marks, the chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, is renowned for his insightful assessments of market opportunity and risk. After four decades spent ascending to the top of the investment management profession, he is today sought out by the world's leading value investors, and his client memos brim with insightful commentary and a time-tested, fundamental philosophy. The Most Important Thing explains the keys to successful investment and the pitfalls that can destroy capital or ruin a career.

Candid, short, and accessible, Winning the Loser's Game walks you through the process of developing and implementing a powerful investing strategy that generates solid profits year after year. In this eagerly awaited new edition, Charles D. Ellis applies the expertise developed over his long, illustrious career. This updated edition includes: new chapters on bond investing, how investor behavior affects returns, and how technology and big data are challenging traditional investment decision; and more.

Naval Ravikant is an entrepreneur, philosopher, and investor who has captivated the world with his principles for building wealth and creating long-term happiness. The Almanack of Naval Ravikant is a collection of Naval’s wisdom and experience from the last 10 years, shared as a curation of his most insightful interviews and poignant reflections. This isn’t a how-to book, or a step-by-step gimmick. Instead, through Naval’s own words, you will learn how to walk your own unique path toward a happier, wealthier life.

Can’t Hurt Me, David Goggins’ smash hit memoir, demonstrated how much untapped ability we all have but was merely an introduction to the power of the mind. In Never Finished, Goggins takes you inside his Mental Lab, where he developed the philosophy, psychology, and strategies that enabled him to learn that what he thought was his limit was only his beginning and that the quest for greatness is unending.

A hundred-thousand investors have turned to this best-selling guide for mastering successful trading by Dr. Alexander Elder, a professional trader, a world-classs expert in technical analysis, and a practicing psychiatrist. He believes that successful trading is based on three M's: Mind, Method, and Money. Trading for a Living helps discipline your Mind, shows you the Methods for trading the markets, and show you have to manage Money in your trading accounts.

In the updated edition of The Elements of Investing, authors Charles Ellis and Burton Malkiel-two of the world's greatest financial thinkers - have again combined their talents to produce a straight-talking book about investing and saving. Written with every investor in mind, this reliable resource will put you on a path towards a lifetime of financial success.

In The WEIRDest People in the World, Joseph Henrich draws on cutting-edge research in anthropology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology to explore these questions and more. He illuminates the origins and evolution of family structures, marriage, and religion, and the profound impact these cultural transformations had on human psychology. Mapping these shifts through ancient history and late antiquity, Henrich reveals that the most fundamental institutions of kinship and marriage changed dramatically under pressure from the Roman Catholic Church.

From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of human memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.

George S. Clason takes financial understanding back to its roots, where property and prosperity were first explored by the Babylonians. Utilizing parables and metaphors set in ancient Babylon, Clason expounds on how to get out of debt, increase savings, build passive income, and more.

Amoral, cunning, ruthless, and instructive, this piercing work distills 3,000 years of the history of power into 48 well-explicated laws. This bold volume outlines the laws of power in their unvarnished essence, synthesizing the philosophies of Machiavelli, Sun Tzu, Carl von Clausewitz, and other infamous strategists. The 48 Laws of Power will fascinate any listener interested in gaining, observing, or defending against ultimate control.

From best-selling author, investment expert, and Wall Street theoretician Jack Schwager comes a behind-the-scenes look at the world of hedge funds, from 15 traders who've consistently beaten the markets. Exploring what makes a great trader a great trader, Hedge Fund Market Wizards breaks new ground, giving readers rare insight into the trading philosophy and successful methods employed by some of the most profitable individuals in the hedge fund business.

With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets - and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets.

Viktor E. Frankl was a medical doctor at a psychiatric hospital in 1942 when he became a prisoner in Nazi concentration camps in World War II. In 1946, he published this book about his camp experiences and a method of psychotherapy he developed. Forty-five years later, it was still named one of the most influential books in the United States. Part One describes his three years in four Nazi concentration camps, which took the lives of his wife, father, mother, and brother. He closely observed inmates’ reactions to their situation, as well as how survivors came to terms with their liberation.

In 1986, before Michael Lewis became the best-selling author of The Big Short, Moneyball, and Flash Boys, he landed a job at Salomon Brothers, one of Wall Street’s premier investment firms. During the next three years, Lewis rose from callow trainee to New York- and London-based bond salesman, raking in millions for the firm and cashing in on a modern-day gold rush. Liar’s Poker is the culmination of those heady, frenzied years - a behind-the-scenes look at a unique and turbulent time in American business.

Language defines us as a species, placing humans head and shoulders above even the most proficient animal communicators. But it also beguiles us with its endless mysteries, allowing us to ponder why different languages emerged, why there isn't simply a single language, how languages change over time and whether that's good or bad, and how languages die out and become extinct.

On Nonviolent Communication, this renowned peacemaker presents his complete system for speaking our deepest truths, addressing our unrecognized needs and emotions, and honoring those same concerns in others. With this adaptation of the best-selling book of the same title, Marshall Rosenberg teaches in his own words.

In How to Be Better at Almost Everything, best-selling author, fitness expert, entrepreneur, and professional business coach Pat Flynn shares the secrets to learning (almost) every skill, from marketing to music to martial arts to writing and relationships, teaching how to combine interests to achieve greatness in any field. His direct, “Generalist” approach to self-improvement gives you the tools you need to make your mark on the world and make buckets of money - without losing your soul.

This book grew out of a series of letters to my daughter concerning various things - mostly about money and investing - she was not yet quite ready to hear. Since money is the single most powerful tool we have for navigating this complex world we've created, understanding it is critical.

In a time of rampant misinformation about ways of growing your money, Burton G. Malkiel’s gimmick-free investment guide is more necessary than ever. In this fully updated edition, Malkiel reveals how to be a tax-smart investor and addresses current investment trends, including factor investing, risk parity, cryptocurrencies, and ESG portfolios. A Random Walk Down Wall Street remains the best investment guide money can buy.

This is an audio summary or Mindset, a book that discusses the differences between people with a fixed mindset versus those with a growth mindset. This book demonstrates how we can achieve our goals by changing our mindset.

Oliver Sacks' The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat tells the stories of individuals afflicted with fantastic perceptual and intellectual aberrations: patients who have lost their memories and with them the greater part of their pasts; who are no longer able to recognize people and common objects; who are stricken with violent tics and grimaces or who shout involuntary obscenities; whose limbs have become alien; who have been dismissed as retarded yet are gifted with uncanny artistic or mathematical talents.

What exactly is a Money Mind? At one level, it's a way of thinking about major financial issues such as capital allocation. At another level, it summarizes an overall mindset for successfully investing in today's fast-paced stock market, a mindset that depends on a commitment to learning, adapting, and facing down irrelevant noise. This is not a method book. It is a thinking book. Warren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind explains the philosophies of self-reliance, stoicism, rationalism, and pragmatism and their contributions to making intelligent investment decisions.

Critical thinking is regularly cited as an essential 21st century skill, the key to success in school and work. Given our propensity to believe fake news, draw incorrect conclusions, and make decisions based on emotion rather than reason, it might even be said that critical thinking is vital to the survival of a democratic society. But what, exactly, is critical thinking? Haber describes the term's origins in such disciplines as philosophy, psychology, and science.